908 Walbridge Rd · Northwest Harborcreek, PA 16511

$79,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 976 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1981 10,624 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 2.3% in Northwest Harborcreek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#25 in PA, #149 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D.
• Harbor Creek SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #53 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $80k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $79,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.00%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,368
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Parkside Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,032 (+6%)	7mo	$220,000	$213	66
409 Sparkhill Ave	0.51mi	3/1.5	988 (+1%)	13mo	$130,000	$132	61
417 Parkside Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,056 (+8%)	2mo	$165,000	$156	61
5048 Iroquois Ave	0.38mi	3/1.0	941 (-4%)	21mo	$151,000	$160	59
4434 Emmett Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,008 (+3%)	8mo	$195,000	$193	56
5005 Lee Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,112 (+14%)	16mo	$306,500	$276	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $13,269
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $45,569
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16511

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,614/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $848

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4400 E Lake Rd Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,702	$2.06	43d	9	0.86mi
1205 Priestley Ave Erie, PA	3.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	43d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-14
   listed $79,900 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,410
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$2,614
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $3,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$953
• After-tax cash flow: $3,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harbor Creek SD
• NCES district ID: 4211490
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,141
• Composite: 54.87/100
• National rank: #1312
• State rank: #53 of 539 in PA

Livability — Northwest Harborcreek

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #149

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northwest Harborcreek, PA
• City population: 11,709
• Population (ZIP): 11,709

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.06%
• Current HPI: 256.8088
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+75.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Delisted — GEBOR
• 2026-06-13 Listed $79,900 GEBOR
• 1986-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1981-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $45,600 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,614 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.