The McGinnis Plan · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$304,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,372 sqft · SingleFamily · 195 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

Key facts

• Access to the yard
• Walk-in closets
• Wide entry

Tags

• WIDE ENTRY
• TRADITIONAL DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN AND FAMILY ROOM
• ACCESS TO THE YARD
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

🏗️ New construction. The $304,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $332,490.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-640 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (21.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (31.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (31.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Willie E Williams El (math 46% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,269 of 4,322 statewide, top 30%, 869 students, 70% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,848 (31.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,490
• List price: $304,990
• Delta: -8.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
240 Ashley Branch St	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,307 (-3%)	0mo	$330,990	$143	73
711 Michelia St	0.47mi	4/3.0	2,307 (-3%)	3mo	$333,990	$145	70
556 Flower Reed Ct	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,353 (-1%)	1mo	$343,990	$146	68
623 Spring Ashberry Ct	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,307 (-3%)	2mo	$322,990	$140	68
627 Spring Ashberry Ct	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,467 (+4%)	1mo	$339,990	$138	66
528 Flower Reed Ct	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,386 (+1%)	3mo	$332,990	$140	66
644 Spring Ashberry Ct	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,452 (+3%)	5mo	$369,990	$151	63
768 Hackberry Branch Ct	0.65mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,483 (+5%)	2mo	$329,990	$133	53
731 Michelia St	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-14%)	0mo	$305,990	$150	51
632 Spring Ashberry Ct	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,045 (-14%)	6mo	$320,990	$157	46
723 Hackberry Branch Ct	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,675 (+13%)	4mo	$353,990	$132	36
717 Rumple Elm Rd	0.69mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,721 (+15%)	6mo	$335,000	$123	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $134,844
• Equity at exit: $299,533

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $419,206
• Equity at exit: $645,955

Cash invested: $93,097 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,987/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $-640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,909

Max offer price $239,887

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-525	+0% $-640	+5% $-755	+10% $-870
Rent	-10% $-806	-5% $-723	+0% $-640	+5% $-557	+10% $-474
Rate	-1.0pp $-473	-0.5pp $-555	base $-640	+0.5pp $-726	+1.0pp $-814

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,122
• Closing costs: $9,975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	45d	1	0.57mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	45d	1	0.61mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	23d	1	0.76mi
297 Country Crossing Cir Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1806	$1,731	$0.96	0d	1	0.94mi
134 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	2329	$1,966	$0.84	0d	1	0.94mi
139 Piney Pathway Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2332	$1,971	$0.85	26d	1	0.96mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	23d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $304,990 Active 195 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,990 Active 192 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,990 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,990 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,990 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,990 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,990 Active 183 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,990 Active 182 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,990 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $304,990 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,990 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,990 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,990 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,990 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $304,990 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

16. 2026-05-04
    price $319,990 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

17. 2026-02-04
    price $316,990 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

18. 2026-02-03
    price $321,990 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

19. 2026-01-16
    price $316,990 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

20. 2025-12-09
    listed $313,990 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    The McGinnis is a two-story plan with a welcoming wide entry leading to a traditional dining room perfect for entertaining. The kitchen and family room live to the rear of the home, with convenient access to the yard. Upstairs, you'll find the spacious owner's suite and three secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets. A large secondary bathroom and ample laundry room are located off the open loft. For flexible living, a study or fifth bedroom and full bath are optional on the first floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,182
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,625
• − Property taxes: −$4,987
• − Insurance: −$1,662
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,015
• − Management: −$2,015
• − Depreciation: −$9,672
• Taxable loss: −$13,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,369/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $321,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $316,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Listed $313,990 Zillow