735 Matthew Mill Rd · Ruckersville, VA 22968

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1986 0.57 ac lot $278/sqft · 21% below area Est $352k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON THE MARKET NOT FAULT OF THE SELLER. Welcome to 735 Matthew Mill Rd — a well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch home in Ruckersville offering comfort, updates, and peace of mind. This move-in ready home features over 1,000 finished square feet, LVP flooring, updated appliances, fresh interior paint, and a NEW spacious deck perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The fully fenced backyard offers great space for pets, play, or outdoor gatherings, and the detached shed with electricity adds extra functionality for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Major improvements have already been completed for the next owner, including a brand new HVAC system with ductwork installed in 2025, craw

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.57 acres

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors; Surveillance system
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available; Fiber optic available
• Home design: Detached single-story home; One-level floor plan
• Construction: Built with stick framing and wood siding; Block foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Deck; Front porch; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first level; Two additional bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Skylights throughout; Primary bedroom on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; First-floor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($581/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.7% in Ruckersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#318 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Greene County Public School District (town): math 40% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #88 of 131 in VA (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Ruckersville Elementary (math 54% / reading 62%, grade C+, #583 of 1,108 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); William Monroe Middle (math 36% / reading 65%, grade C, #226 of 342 statewide, top 67%, 675 students, 67% FRL); William Monroe High (math 40% / reading 78%, grade C+, #256 of 319 statewide, top 81%, 957 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 32% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 204 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (34 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,290 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,470
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -20.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
795 Matthew Mill Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+4%)	12mo	$277,000	$264	76
91 Mohican Trl	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,008 (0%)	3mo	$235,000	$233	72
838 Matthew Mill Rd	0.12mi	3/1.0	960 (-5%)	15mo	$240,000	$250	70
1229 Matthew Mill Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,158 (+15%)	5mo	$200,000	$173	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-42,387
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,408
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22968

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,289/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,142

Max offer price $279,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
68 Black Hawk Dr Ruckersville, VA	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	948	$1,925	$2.03	1d	5	0.78mi
591 Preddy Creek Rd Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,400	$2.00	3d	1	0.97mi
100 Terrace Greene Cir Barboursville, VA	2.0	2.0–2.5	1272	$2,099	$1.65	1d	23	1.11mi
32 Estes Ct Barboursville, VA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,600	$1.86	13d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $279,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   status $279,900 Pending 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $279,900 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $279,900 Active 910-char remark
15. 2026-05-13
    historical $279,900 910-char remark
16. 2002-12-05
    listed $121,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,006/yr (+$84/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,289
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$4,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $1,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,129
• Composite: 45.22/100
• National rank: #2668
• State rank: #88 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ruckersville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #11455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,603

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,465 people
• By 2030: 20,958 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 21,619 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 21,699 · +6.0%
• By 2075: 21,656 · +5.8%
• By 2100: 20,156 · -1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.0% · R 61.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+25.3 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.51%
• Current HPI: 270.0786
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+129.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-05-15 Listed $279,900 CAAR
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $279,900 CAAR
• 2002-12-05 Listed $121,900 CAAR

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,289 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.