952 Morning Star Rd · Church Hill, TN 37642

$149,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Other public records · 96 Days on market

Built 2003 0.87 ac lot $142/sqft · 10% below area Est $167k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Metal roof
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• SECURITY SYSTEM
• RECENT UPDATES
• METAL ROOF
• WELL PUMP
• WATER HEATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-21 ($-248/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $147k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.6% in Church Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#42 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Carter'S Valley Elementary (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #709 of 952 statewide, top 77%, 332 students, 0% FRL); Church Hill Intermediate School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #128 of 333 statewide, top 40%, 372 students, 0% FRL); Volunteer High School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #101 of 332 statewide, top 30%, 1,045 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 57% district-wide (57 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,598 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,938
• List price: $149,999
• Delta: -10.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-25,604
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-23,913
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37642

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $147,006

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $31	+0% $-21	+5% $-73	+10% $-124
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-71	+0% $-21	+5% $30	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $55	-0.5pp $17	base $-21	+0.5pp $-60	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   status $149,999 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,999 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-05
   days on market $149,999 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,999 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,999 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,999 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $149,999 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-04-07
   status Active 1461-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

   Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

9. 2026-03-25
   status Pending 1461-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

   Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

10. 2026-03-06
    price $164,900 1461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

    Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

11. 2026-02-22
    price $164,990 1461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

    Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

12. 2026-02-20
    price $164,909 1461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

    Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

13. 2026-02-13
    listed $164,999 Active 1461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1461 chars)

    Updated 3BR Home on Nearly an Acre with Fenced Yard & Security and low taxes Lovingly Cared for by Original Owners! Step into comfort and peace at this charming 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home on 0.87 acres in the heart of Church Hill. With 1,056 sq ft of living space and thoughtful updates throughout, this home is move-in ready and waiting for its next family. From the moment you walk in, you'll feel the difference this home has been lovingly maintained by its only owners. The warm and inviting floor plan makes it easy to imagine family dinners, game nights, and cozy mornings gathered together. The kitchen and dining areas flow naturally into the living room, creating a welcoming space perfect for entertaining or everyday family life. Each of the three bedrooms offers comfort and flexibility, while both bathrooms have been updated to suit modern needs. Outside, you'll love the fenced backyard perfect for kids, pets, and family gatherings. And for extra peace of mind, this home also features a security system so you can feel safe and secure. Highlights: 3 Bedrooms, 2 Bathrooms, 1,056 Sq Ft of living space, generous 0.87 Acre Lot Lovingly cared for by original owners Recent updates throughout Spacious fenced yard. Security system for added peace of mind. Metal roof, well pump, water heater, propane tank, the list goes on! This is the kind of home where memories are made perfect for buyers looking for peace of mind and lasting value.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,235
• − Management: −$1,235
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$673
• After-tax cash flow: $425/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Church Hill

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #42
• US rank: #6706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 14,491
• Population (ZIP): 14,491

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.69%
• Current HPI: 297.1526
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $164,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-22 Price Changed $164,990 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $164,909 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $164,999 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $282 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.