2990 Ravines Rd #1422 · Middleburg, FL 32068

$144,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1983 $356/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Tree views
• Back porch

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• BUILT-IN SHELVING
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• BACK PORCH
• TREE VIEWS
• ROOF REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community has an association; Association fee $300 monthly; Additional association fee $56 monthly; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking available
• Utilities: Cable available and connected
• Home design: Condominium; Property is attached; 2 total stories; Entry level: 2
• Exterior features: No private pool; Lot approximately 0.01 acres

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (entry level: 2)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Refrigerator included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $129k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $145k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,308 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-28,369
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-28,930
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 601
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,515 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,303/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$356
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,626

Max offer price $129,308

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1637 Ascend Ln Middleburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$1,429	$1.34	2d	10	0.51mi
4027 Everett Ave Unit C Middleburg, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,400	$1.47	23d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $356 · $4,272/yr
• Likely covers: cablesecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $144,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $144,900 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $144,900
15. 2026-02-20
    listed $150,000 Active
16. 2024-09-05
    soldstatus $95,000
17. 2024-08-22
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

18. 2024-08-06
    status Pending 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

19. 2024-07-26
    historical Active Under Contract 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

20. 2024-07-09
    price $125,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

21. 2024-06-05
    price $135,000 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

22. 2024-04-02
    listed $140,000 Active 499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (499 chars)

    Beautifully maintained home in gated Ravines community. This move in ready home features tiled floors throughout the living area, 2 full bathrooms and built in shelves. There is a murphy bed available in the living area that can accommodate your guests. Open the sliding glass doors to your private screened patio and the view of the lush landscape. Washer and dryer are included. Cable is included with the condo fees. This is a perfect home for either a home owner or an investor. NEW ROOF 2024.

23. 2001-06-23
    soldstatus $49,857

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,303 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,175
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,303
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,454
• − Management: −$1,454
• − HOA: −$4,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$3,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$807
• After-tax cash flow: $-252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+190.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $144,900 realMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $150,000 realMLS
• 2024-09-05 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-22 Sold (MLS) $95,000 realMLS
• 2024-08-06 Pending — realMLS
• 2024-07-26 Contingent — realMLS
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $125,000 realMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $135,000 realMLS
• 2024-04-02 Listed $140,000 realMLS
• 2001-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $49,857 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,303 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.