2802 Mesa Verde Dr · Llano Grande, TX 78596

$57,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 211 Days on market

Built 1979 Fair condition 3,199 sqft lot $68/sqft · 24% below area Est $75k · 24% under $58/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath, with a carport. The mobile has a front-end kitchen which has a lot of light and a nice view out front. Laundry area is in the hallway. Outside has a nice size shed for extra storage. The mobile home is not furnished.

Key facts

• Partially furnished
• Laundry area
• Size shed

Tags

• FRONT-END KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY AREA
• SIZE SHED
• PARTIALLY FURNISHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $57k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $498 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $50k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,288 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 708 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61 of equity ($394 loan paydown + $-333 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 211 days — a 12% lower offer ($50k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 211 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.41%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $75,033
• List price: $57,000
• Delta: -24.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2813 La Quinta Dr	0.03mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	17mo	$53,000	$63	82
2729 La Quinta Dr	0.02mi	2/1.5	812 (-3%)	14mo	$75,000	$92	81
2919 Mesa Verde Dr	0.16mi	2/1.5	840 (0%)	16mo	$79,500	$95	80
2721 La Quinta Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0	952 (+13%)	8mo	$83,500	$88	67
3010 Palmetto Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	924 (+10%)	10mo	$69,900	$76	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $28,530
• Equity at exit: $14,905

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.49×
• Total profit: $71,644
• Equity at exit: $16,651

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78596

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 708
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,202 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$71 /mo · $855/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $498

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $57,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $537	-5% $517	+0% $498	+5% $478	+10% $458
Rent	-10% $403	-5% $450	+0% $498	+5% $545	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $526	-0.5pp $512	base $498	+0.5pp $483	+1.0pp $468

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 Laquinta Weslaco, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,350	$1.37	44d	1	0.04mi
1635 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	44d	1	0.58mi
1630 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	935	$1,095	$1.17	44d	1	0.58mi
1603 Playa Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	0.69mi
1511 Playa Dr Unit 2 Progreso Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	987	$1,250	$1.27	44d	1	0.71mi
1424 Alta Vista Dr Apt 1 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$995	$1.21	44d	1	0.82mi
3808 Las Vistas Ln Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,100	$1.19	44d	1	0.84mi
3918 Las Vistas Ln Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,125	$1.06	44d	1	0.84mi
1416 Alta Vista Dr Apt 1 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,025	$1.04	44d	1	0.84mi
3921 Las Vistas Ln Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,050	$0.98	44d	1	0.85mi
1413 Alta Vista Dr Unit 4 Progreso Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,150	$1.06	44d	1	0.87mi
3814 Bella Costa Dr Unit 2 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,175	$1.08	44d	1	0.88mi
1404 Alta Vista Dr Unit 3 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,075	$1.09	44d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,000 Active 211 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $57,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $57,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $57,000 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,000 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $57,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,000 Active 193 DOM
16. 2025-11-18
    listed $57,000 Active 246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (246 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath, with a carport. The mobile has a front-end kitchen which has a lot of light and a nice view out front. Laundry area is in the hallway. Outside has a nice size shed for extra storage. The mobile home is not furnished.

17. 2020-07-30
    price $33,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath. The mobile has a front end kitchen which has been redone. Laundry area is in the hallway. Also there is a shed for storage. The mobile home is furnished.

18. 2020-07-23
    soldstatus Sold 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath. The mobile has a front end kitchen which has been redone. Laundry area is in the hallway. Also there is a shed for storage. The mobile home is furnished.

19. 2020-07-05
    status Pending 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath. The mobile has a front end kitchen which has been redone. Laundry area is in the hallway. Also there is a shed for storage. The mobile home is furnished.

20. 2020-07-02
    price $34,900 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath. The mobile has a front end kitchen which has been redone. Laundry area is in the hallway. Also there is a shed for storage. The mobile home is furnished.

21. 2020-06-11
    listed $34,900 Active 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Nice 2bedroom and 1 1/2 bath. The mobile has a front end kitchen which has been redone. Laundry area is in the hallway. Also there is a shed for storage. The mobile home is furnished.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$855
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,154
• − Management: −$1,154
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable income: $5,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,303
• After-tax cash flow: $4,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with moderate repairs needed. Upgrading the exterior, kitchen, and bathroom would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Light wear
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures, some wear
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration
• Minor Interior walls — Some paint wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Light wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Standard fixtures, some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Interior walls · Some paint wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modernizes kitchen ↑
• Resale Upgrade bathroom fixtures — Enhances bathroom aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Llano Grande

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1288
• US rank: #22408

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Llano Grande, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,942

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 38% White 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 82%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 72%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Current HPI: 261.5117
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+63.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-18 Listed $57,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-07-30 Price Changed $33,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-07-23 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2020-07-05 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2020-07-02 Price Changed $34,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-06-11 Listed $34,900 MCALLENMLS