13509 Muny Pkwy · Elgin, TX 78621

$279,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,520 sqft · Land · 30 Days on market

Built 2026 5,627 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $290k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Creeks Crossing offers the lowest tax rate among premium builders in Elgin, with no MUD or PID and a low HOA. This home stands out as the only available home featuring an upgraded primary suite with two separate walk-in closets, an enlarged and reconfigured owner's bathroom that has a ceramic tile pan shower with seat and a separate tub. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home also showcases a beautiful brick and stone elevation, adding to its curb appeal. Inside, the home features a dedicated tech space which is perfect for working from home or staying organized. It also has a spacious kitchen with a large walk-in pantry, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining.

Key facts

• Dedicated tech space
• Large walk-in pantry
• 5,627 sq ft lot

Tags

• UPGRADED PRIMARY SUITE
• TWO SEPARATE WALK-IN CLOSETS
• ENLARGED OWNER'S BATHROOM
• CERAMIC TILE PAN SHOWER
• DEDICATED TECH SPACE
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Green features include energy-efficient appliances (see remarks)
• HOA & community: Part of Creeks Crossing Community Association; Monthly HOA fee of $42 (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener; 4 total parking spaces (2 covered)
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story home; New construction by DRB Homes; Faces northwest; Entry level: Main
• Construction: Masonry construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Front yard; Back yard; Wood fencing; See remarks for additional exterior details

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; Free‑standing range; Self‑cleaning oven; Microwave; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Main level primary bedroom; Wired for data; ENERGY STAR qualified vinyl windows; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (24.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $212,187 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.84%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,816
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -3.39%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.85×
• Total profit: $145,056
• Equity at exit: $252,237

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $433,588
• Equity at exit: $543,959

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,031/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $258,806

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-41	+0% $-120	+5% $-199	+10% $-278
Rent	-10% $-288	-5% $-204	+0% $-120	+5% $-36	+10% $48
Rate	-1.0pp $21	-0.5pp $-49	base $-120	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-266

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	21d	1	0.15mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	6d	1	0.36mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.39mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.39mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.54mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.57mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.58mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.62mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	4d	1	0.66mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	18d	1	0.74mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.77mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	18d	1	0.79mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.79mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	45d	1	0.91mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	16d	1	0.97mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	45d	1	1.10mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	6d	1	1.27mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	25d	1	1.27mi
13817 County Line Rd Elgin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	937	$1,890	$2.02	0d	6	1.29mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	19d	1	1.30mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	19d	1	1.33mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	1.35mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	45d	1	1.36mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	25d	1	1.36mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,875	$1.23	0d	1	1.39mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	45d	1	1.40mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	45d	1	1.42mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,935	$1.08	0d	1	1.42mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	22d	1	1.45mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	25d	1	1.45mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	45d	1	1.46mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $279,990 Active 677-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,093/yr (+$258/mo · 152.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,031
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,037
• − Management: −$2,037
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$6,375
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $91/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $279,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,031 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.