8284 New Bowling Green Rd · Smiths Grove, KY 42171

$60,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,889 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Possible 3rd bedroom,huge great room,54 x 24 doublewide, metal roof 4 years old, to be sold as, needs TLC

Key facts

• Central air and heat
• .75 acre
• Listed 36 days

Tags

• CENTRAL AIR AND HEAT
• LARGE FRONT AND BACK PORCH
• .75 ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $570 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.7% vs local median 3.2% in Smiths Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#256 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Barren County (rural): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #52 of 165 in KY (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 283 units permitted in Barren County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barren County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $60k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,200 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.73%
• DSCR: 2.81
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $26,617
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.17×
• Total profit: $70,023
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42171

• Home prices YoY: -12.6%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $570

Break-even live

Break-even rent $525

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $60,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $60,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $60,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    listed $60,000 Active
17. 2011-11-29
    soldstatus $21,000 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Possible 3rd bedroom,huge great room,54 x 24 doublewide, metal roof 4 years old, to be sold as, needs TLC

18. 2010-07-02
    listed $32,900 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    Possible 3rd bedroom,huge great room,54 x 24 doublewide, metal roof 4 years old, to be sold as, needs TLC

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $6,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,503
• After-tax cash flow: $5,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including new siding and roof, to become move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible roof condition

Value-add opportunities

• Both new exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both new roof — Improves home's value and extends lifespan

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible roof condition	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both new exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both new roof — Improves home's value and extends lifespan ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barren County
• NCES district ID: 2100300
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $45,000
• Composite: 31.08/100
• National rank: #6077
• State rank: #52 of 165 in KY

Livability — Smiths Grove

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #12802

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,189

Population outlook (Barren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,858 people
• By 2030: 48,311 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 50,931 · +8.7%
• By 2050: 52,820 · +12.7%
• By 2075: 56,499 · +20.6%
• By 2100: 55,831 · +19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Polish 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.8) · D 23.1% · R 75.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -52.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.8 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.9 2012: R+33.3 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.24%
• Current HPI: 307.0886
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+82.4% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $60,000 FSBO.com
• 2011-11-29 Sold (MLS) $21,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-07-02 Listed $32,900 Metro Search MLS