871 Shumard Way · Lady Lake, FL 32159

$297,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,281 sqft · SingleFamily · 152 Days on market

Built 2025 5,320 sqft lot Est $370k · 19% under $134/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. SAMPLE IMAGE The Magellan floorplan is a versatile two-story home offering 3 bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms with ample space, spanning 2281 sq. ft. Ideal for families or those who love hosting, this layout combines functionality with modern design. The main floor opens up to a spacious great room, dining area, and covered patio, perfect for entertaining or relaxing evenings at home. Upstairs, the owner's suite boasts a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom, ensuring your comfort. The Magellan is thoughtfully designed for comfort and style, making it a perfect home base.

Key facts

• 5,320 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included
• Financial info: Other annual assessment reported ($1,450); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required (Rizzetta And Company/Kenneth Zilke); Monthly HOA approximately $134.67; Quarterly association fee (reported $404); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, playground, tennis courts, and fence restrictions; Community features include clubhouse, community mailbox, dog park, sidewalks, and deed restrictions; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19 x 20); Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction; Two levels; West-facing
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Dream Finders Homes (Model: Magellan)
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Cleared, level lot; Paved, asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Heat recovery unit; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone countertops; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $298k).
• Recommended offer: $262k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Lady Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#457 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: The Villages Elementary of Lady Lake School (math 63% / reading 61%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 761 students, 61% FRL); Leesburg High School (math 24% / reading 32%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,641 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,071/mo this rent would consume 63% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $32k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $262,231 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.34%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $369,522
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
858 Sunshower Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,281 (0%)	4mo	$299,990	$132	89
998 Swamp Chestnut Loop	0.03mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,110 (-8%)	2mo	$322,990	$153	78
862 Sunshower Dr	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,417 (+6%)	0mo	$312,990	$129	75
708 Sunshower Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,110 (-8%)	9mo	$416,143	$197	59
716 Sunshower Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,417 (+6%)	9mo	$399,000	$165	54
744 Sunshower Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,938 (-15%)	1mo	$312,990	$162	54
38049 Rolling Acres Rd	0.56mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,070 (-9%)	13mo	$400,000	$193	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,133
• Equity at exit: $44,431

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $6,827
• Equity at exit: $25,765

Cash invested: $83,437 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,071 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,563
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,470/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$134
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,776

Max offer price $297,990

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,498
• Closing costs: $8,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1252 Vanderway Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1698	$2,050	$1.21	5d	1	1.44mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	21d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $134 · $1,608/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,990 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,990 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,990 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,990 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,990 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,990 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,990 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $297,990 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $302,990 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $302,990 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,990 Active 136 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $302,990 Active 135 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $302,990 Active 134 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    status Active
15. 2026-04-24
    historical
16. 2026-03-16
    price $302,990
17. 2026-02-09
    price $312,990
18. 2026-01-06
    price $309,990
19. 2026-01-04
    listed $329,989 Active
20. 2025-08-22
    historical
21. 2025-08-22
    price $380,548
22. 2025-07-12
    listed $408,736 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,692
• − Property taxes: −$4,470
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,948
• − Management: −$2,948
• − HOA: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$8,669
• Taxable loss: −$1,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$474
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lady Lake

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #8302

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lady Lake, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $302,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $312,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-04 Listed $329,989 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $380,548 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Listed $408,736 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid