338 W Park St · Guthrie, KY 42234

$125,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1952 0.70 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

🏡 CHARACTER, SPACE & SMALL-TOWN CHARM! 🏡 Welcome to 338 West Park Street in Guthrie, Kentucky! This spacious 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 2,432 square feet filled with timeless character and endless potential. ✨ Features You'll Love: ✔️ Beautiful mature trees on a generous 7/10ths acre lot ✔️ Detached garage for storage or workshop space ✔️ Cozy fireplaces full of vintage charm ✔️ A magical staircase that adds character you just can’t find in newer homes ✔️ Large rooms and classic farmhouse feel ✔️ Metal roof and inviting front porch Built in 1950, this property is perfect for someone looking for space, charm, and the opportunity to make a historic home their ow

Key facts

• 0.7 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 1.6% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#328 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Todd County (rural): math 23% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #99 of 165 in KY (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Todd County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Todd County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $125k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.83%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $617,728
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
389 Third St	0.58mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,480 (+2%)	2mo	$125,000	$50	59
137 Royal View Way	0.64mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,616 (+8%)	9mo	$665,655	$254	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-117
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $25,892
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42234

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $402	-5% $359	+0% $316	+5% $273	+10% $229
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $257	+0% $316	+5% $375	+10% $434
Rate	-1.0pp $379	-0.5pp $348	base $316	+0.5pp $283	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 1998-11-01
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,919
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,914
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$459
• After-tax cash flow: $3,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Todd County
• NCES district ID: 2105550
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $39,989
• Composite: 26.01/100
• National rank: #7315
• State rank: #99 of 165 in KY

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #328
• US rank: #15684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Guthrie, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,299

Population outlook (Todd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,073 people
• By 2030: 11,770 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 11,082 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 10,250 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 8,037 · -33.4%
• By 2100: 5,654 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · German/W. Germanic 16% Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Todd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.9) · D 20.6% · R 78.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -36.3pp · 2024: -57.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.1 2008: R+36.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.98%
• Current HPI: 299.0887
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $83 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.