17 Bradley Ln · Antioch, CA 94509

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

$74/sqft · 50% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* SENIOR 55+ and Well maintained GATED Mobile Home Park* 1344 sq ft, 2 bed 2 bath!* No rear neighbors * Guest parking nearly. * Light and airy open floor plan with oversized living room & dining room with beamed ceilings*, spacious Kitchen ample counter top deck off the living room with fireplace,, storage shed* Water softener* Alll appliances are included,* Laundry room with lots of storage** Updated clubhouse with pool tables, tennis table, swimming pool, spa. exercise room* FAST CLOSE AND OCCUPANCY. SHOWN BY APPOINTMENT ONLY !Must be Park approved and income must be 2 -3 X the amount of the rent

Key facts

• Guest parking
• Exercise room
• Swimming pool

Tags

• GATED MOBILE HOME PARK
• REMODELED CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• EXERCISE ROOM
• GUEST PARKING
• COVERED FRONT DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 206 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.33%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,911
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 50.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26 Bradley Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	8mo	$88,000	$68	84
91 Diana Way	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	5mo	$62,000	$43	76
98 Diana Way	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$60,000	$42	76
15 Bradley Ln	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	17mo	$40,000	$28	73
56 Creekside Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	12mo	$47,500	$38	72
120 Paulette Way	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	10mo	$38,000	$26	71
1 Mark Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+14%)	1mo	$95,000	$62	69
34 Mark Ln	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	8mo	$65,000	$56	67
121 Paulette	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	15mo	$89,000	$62	67
147 Paulette Way	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	9mo	$59,000	$51	61
86 Diana Way	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$71,500	$62	60
3301 Buchanan Rd #75	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,211 (-10%)	17mo	$115,000	$95	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $63,551
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $145,173
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,542 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$534
• Net cashflow: $1,324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2433 Sequoia Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1058	$2,795	$2.64	43d	1	0.13mi
3101 Buchanan Rd Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	1d	4	0.23mi
2811 Cadiz Ln Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	803	$2,023	$2.52	1d	1	0.41mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	686	$2,437	$3.55	1d	8	0.85mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	43d	1	0.86mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	43d	1	0.88mi
1902 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,100	$2.69	43d	1	1.02mi
1312 Mission Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,975	$2.07	4d	1	1.04mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	43d	1	1.10mi
2725 Entrada Cir Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1302	$2,000	$1.54	17d	1	1.14mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	1d	10	1.16mi
2221 Dogwood Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,995	$2.60	43d	1	1.30mi
2205 E Leland Rd Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,359	$2.79	1d	20	1.33mi
2112 Banyan Way Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1154	$2,900	$2.51	43d	1	1.37mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	5d	1	1.39mi
60 Xena Ct Pittsburg, CA	3.0	2.5	1805	$3,200	$1.77	43d	1	1.42mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	43d	1	1.42mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	43d	1	1.43mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.43mi
1508 Crestview Dr Antioch, CA	3.0	2.0	1197	$2,949	$2.46	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-04-02
    listed $99,000 Active 611-char remark

    Show marketing remark (611 chars)

    * SENIOR 55+ and Well maintained GATED Mobile Home Park* 1344 sq ft, 2 bed 2 bath!* No rear neighbors * Guest parking nearly. * Light and airy open floor plan with oversized living room & dining room with beamed ceilings*, spacious Kitchen ample counter top deck off the living room with fireplace,, storage shed* Water softener* Alll appliances are included,* Laundry room with lots of storage** Updated clubhouse with pool tables, tennis table, swimming pool, spa. exercise room* FAST CLOSE AND OCCUPANCY. SHOWN BY APPOINTMENT ONLY !Must be Park approved and income must be 2 -3 X the amount of the rent

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,509
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,441
• − Management: −$2,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $15,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,653
• After-tax cash flow: $12,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listed $99,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $140 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.