12021 7th 1/2 St · Santa Fe, TX 77510

$499,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1977 2.32 ac lot $256/sqft · 59% above area ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on 2.32 tree-filled acres in Santa Fe, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a quiet, nostalgic kind of peace—the kind where squirrels play in the trees and evenings slow down. Surrounded by 50+ mature pecan and oak trees, the setting feels private, shaded, and timeless. Inside, the home features 1,950 sq ft of comfortable living space with thoughtful updates including a new HVAC system, insulation, and double-pane windows, keeping the home efficient year-round. A flex room adds space for a home office, study, or creative retreat, while a built-in wine fridge makes everyday moments feel special. A breezeway leads to a detached 2-car garage and 24x24 workshop, with a wide driv

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Mature oak trees
• Flex room

Tags

• TREE-FILLED ACRES
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• MATURE OAK TREES
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• FLEX ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21k ($254k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($31k rent vs $499k).
• Recommended offer: $492k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 57.1% vs local median 4.5% in Santa Fe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#550 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Fe ISD (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #385 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 233 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $140k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($492k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $491,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 181.54%
• DSCR: 9.08
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,754
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: 64.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4018 Avenue L	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,948 (-0%)	3mo	$359,000	$184	88
12008 7th St	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-4%)	9mo	$352,000	$189	77
3826 Garden Hill Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,904 (-2%)	7mo	$332,990	$175	72
3911 Redbud Ct	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,009 (+3%)	8mo	$360,000	$179	69
12026 Crooked Creek Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+3%)	2mo	$345,096	$172	67
12418 A Bar Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	2,054 (+5%)	3mo	$284,900	$139	66
12546 D Bar Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,933 (-1%)	7mo	$309,999	$160	66
12131 Wooden Mill Ln N	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,009 (+3%)	7mo	$330,000	$164	65
12122 Blossom Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+5%)	4mo	$342,990	$167	64
12106 Maple Ct	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,051 (+5%)	8mo	$342,990	$167	58
3859 Mulberry Farms Dr	0.32mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+10%)	2mo	$387,840	$181	58
3818 Garden Hill Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,140 (+10%)	4mo	$346,990	$162	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.06×
• Total profit: $1,265,924
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.31×
• Total profit: $2,837,996
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77510

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $31,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$709 /mo · $8,509/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,558
• Net cashflow: $21,138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,473

Max offer price $499,000

Occupancy floor 27%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11844 13th St Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,750	$1.19	21d	1	0.56mi
4120 Avenue O #10 Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$74,621	$58.30	43d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $499,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $499,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $499,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $499,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $499,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $499,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $499,000 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-05-19
    historical
14. 2026-04-22
    price $515,000
15. 2026-02-06
    listed $525,000 Active
16. 2026-02-06
    historical
17. 2025-10-17
    listed $550,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,509 · $709/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,132 · $761/mo
• Expected delta: +$623/yr (+$52/mo · 7.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $374,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$8,509
• − Insurance: −$2,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$29,980
• − Management: −$29,980
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable income: $261,322
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$62,717
• After-tax cash flow: $190,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Fe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839270
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,769
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #5091
• State rank: #385 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Fe

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #550
• US rank: #10637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Fe, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,938

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.15%
• Current HPI: 299.2228
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $515,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $525,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $550,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,509 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.