809 E Palestine St · Mexia, TX 76667

$55,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 1966 Fair condition 6,011 sqft lot $43/sqft · 49% below area Est $110k · 49% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home nestled in the heart of Mexia, TX, offering the perfect blend of cozy cottage style and outdoor space. Inside, you’ll find a warm and inviting interior with character-filled details, soft natural light, and a comfortable layout that makes you feel right at home. The cottage-inspired design adds a touch of charm and simplicity, ideal for relaxing or entertaining. Enjoy slow mornings or peaceful evenings on the inviting front covered porch—perfect for sipping coffee and taking in the quiet surroundings. Step outside to a beautiful, spacious lot with plenty of room to garden, play, or create your own outdoor retreat. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful place to unwind or a property with room to grow, this home offers both comfort and potential. A true gem with small-town appeal—don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours. OWNER FIANCE details available upon request.

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Spacious lot
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• SPACIOUS LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 3.6% in Mexia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#458 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mexia ISD (town): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #696 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: A B Mcbay El (527 students, 86% FRL); Mexia J H (math 30% / reading 35%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 386 students, 81% FRL); Mexia H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 553 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $386 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Limestone County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $49,192 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.38%
• DSCR: 2.66
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,286
• List price: $55,900
• Delta: -49.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
805 E Palestine St	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,244 (-4%)	7mo	$85,000	$68	82
203 S Red River St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,218 (-6%)	6mo	$110,000	$90	74
924 E Titus St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (+3%)	4mo	$170,000	$127	65
1005 E Evergreen St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,316 (+2%)	4mo	$84,999	$65	60
610 N Bailey St	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,170 (-10%)	5mo	$85,000	$73	56
723 E Nowlin St	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,386 (+7%)	1mo	$157,500	$114	55
504 E Bowie	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,350 (+4%)	19mo	$215,000	$159	52
1122 E Palestine St	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,320 (+2%)	23mo	$135,000	$102	48
1016 E Hopkins St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,374 (+6%)	17mo	$189,500	$138	46
712 E Liberty St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (-14%)	10mo	$85,000	$76	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.41×
• Total profit: $22,018
• Equity at exit: $8,335

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.79×
• Total profit: $59,256
• Equity at exit: $4,833

Cash invested: $15,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 9 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.0 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $189,900 ($157/sqft)
• Median days on market: 118 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -45.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76667

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$293
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $983/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $504

Max offer price $55,900

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $503	+0% $488	+5% $472	+10% $456
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $443	+0% $488	+5% $532	+10% $576
Rate	-1.0pp $516	-0.5pp $502	base $488	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,975
• Closing costs: $1,677
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $55,900 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $55,900 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $55,900 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $55,900 Active 142 DOM
5. 2026-09-17
   days on market $55,900 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $55,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $55,900 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-09-14
   days on market $55,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-09-13
   days on market $55,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-09-12
    days on market $55,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $55,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-09-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-09-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 128 DOM
14. 2026-09-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 127 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $59,900 Active 126 DOM
16. 2026-08-29
    days on market $59,900 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-08-28
    days on market $59,900 Active 121 DOM
18. 2026-08-27
    days on market $59,900 Active 120 DOM
19. 2026-08-26
    days on market $59,900 Active 119 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $59,900 Active 118 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $59,900 Active 117 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $59,900 Active 116 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $59,900 Active 115 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $59,900 Active 114 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $59,900 Active 113 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $59,900 Active 112 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $59,900 Active 111 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $59,900 Active 110 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $59,900 Active 109 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $59,900 Active 108 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $59,900 Active 107 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $59,900 Active 106 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $59,900 Active 105 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $59,900 Active 104 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $59,900 Active 103 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $59,900 Active 102 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $59,900 Active 101 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $59,900 Active 100 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $59,900 Active 99 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $59,900 Active 98 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $59,900 Active 97 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $59,900 Active 96 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $59,900 Active 93 DOM
44. 2026-07-29
    days on market $59,900 Active 91 DOM
45. 2026-07-27
    days on market $59,900 Active 89 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $59,900 Active 88 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $59,900 Active 86 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $59,900 Active 85 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $59,900 Active 84 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $59,900 Active 83 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $983 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,023 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,131
• − Property taxes: −$983
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,077
• − Management: −$1,077
• − Depreciation: −$1,626
• Taxable income: $5,284
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,268
• After-tax cash flow: $4,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $32,400–$58,320 screening

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its condition and increase its value. Repairs to the roof, exterior siding, and flooring, along with landscaping and fencing improvements, are necessary to make it move-in ready.

Deferred maintenance Est. $50,000–$150,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — The roof appears to be in poor condition with visible damage and missing shingles.
• Major Windows (windows) — The windows appear to be old and possibly not functioning properly.
• Major Electrical (electrical) — The electrical panel appears to be old and may need to be replaced.
• Major Plumbing (plumbing) — The exterior of the house shows signs of water damage, indicating potential plumbing issues.
• Major Exterior (exterior) — The exterior of the house appears to be in poor condition with peeling paint and possible structural issues.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — Worn and weathered
• Major hardwood flooring — Worn and in need of replacement
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and requires trimming

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both repair fencing — Improves safety and property value ↑
• Both replace hardwood flooring — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary A B Mcbay El Middle Mexia J H F TX #947/1,662 Nat'l #8,188/14,009 High Mexia H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mexia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830420
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $37,464
• Composite: 22.48/100
• National rank: #8101
• State rank: #696 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Mexia

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #458
• US rank: #9265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexia, TX
• County: Limestone · 23,396 people
• Population (ZIP): 10,494
• Household income: $50,396
• Rent vs Own: 30.9% rent · 69.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Limestone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,396 people
• By 2030: 23,214 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 22,829 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 22,516 · -3.8%
• By 2075: 22,088 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 20,354 · -13.0%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 24% Black 21%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Limestone

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 21.2% · R 78.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.91%
• Current HPI: 161.8191
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $68,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $983 · -38.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.