19823 Burle Oak Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,230 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1978 5,248 sqft lot $179/sqft · 27% above area Est $204k · 8% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AROMATICALLY FRESH AND CLEAN FOUR BEDROOM HOME IN MOVE IN CONDITION. .. .NO CARPETING, FRESH PAINT; EASY TO MAINTAIN FLOORING; BEAUTIFUL WHITE SPECKLED GRANITE. . SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN -- GRANITE IN BATHROOMS TOO. NEWER A/C AND ROOF. .. .. IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AIRPORT; DINING; SHOPPING; MEDICAL FACILITIES AND HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR AND BELTWAY 8.. . PREVIOUS OCCUPANTS LEFT A HOT TUB BUT CURRENT OWNERS DO NOT KNOW IF IT FUNCTIONS OR

Key facts

• No carpeting
• Fresh paint
• Split bedroom plan

Tags

• MOVE IN CONDITION
• NO CARPETING
• FRESH PAINT
• EASY TO MAINTAIN FLOORING
• WHITE SPECKLED GRANITE
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA: STERLING ASI; Annual association fee of $300; Association covers recreation facilities; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1978; Single-story entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15x12); Three additional first-floor bedrooms (approx. 11x11, 11x11, 10x11) — four bedrooms possible total
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Kitchen open to family room; One fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-801/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $220k implies a 451% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,277 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $204,404
• List price: $219,900
• Delta: 7.58%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19918 Burle Oak Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,248 (+2%)	9mo	$205,000	$164	85
5414 Quail Tree Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,224 (-0%)	10mo	$192,500	$157	85
19919 Burle Oak Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (+5%)	3mo	$185,000	$143	81
20109 Misty Pines Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,267 (+3%)	7mo	$229,000	$181	76
19934 Burle Oak Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,299 (+6%)	14mo	$199,900	$154	72
5442 Dove Forest Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+12%)	9mo	$200,000	$145	70
5403 Fawn Trail Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,347 (+10%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	69
20130 Misty Pines Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+11%)	1mo	$225,000	$165	67
5435 Fawn Trail Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,407 (+14%)	14mo	$219,900	$156	61
20026 Faye Oaks Dr	0.26mi	3/3.0	1,376 (+12%)	10mo	$214,000	$156	56
20034 Bambiwoods Dr	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,078 (-12%)	13mo	$179,995	$167	44
5307 Green Timbers Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+10%)	14mo	$210,999	$157	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-25,754
• Equity at exit: $53,565

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-30,415
• Equity at exit: $56,661

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,923 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,791/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$404
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $208,110

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	22d	1	0.09mi
19113 Moon Trail Dr Unit ECT Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,319	$1.25	11d	1	0.88mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	1.02mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	1.10mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	5d	1	1.22mi
5248 Timbers Quail Dr Atascocita, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,225	$1.17	43d	1	1.29mi
18551 Timber Forest Dr Humble, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$1,609	$1.49	1d	7	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $219,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    listed $219,900 Active 428-char remark
16. 2026-04-02
    historical
17. 2025-08-18
    listed $229,900 Active
18. 2025-08-04
    historical
19. 2025-07-03
    price $235,000
20. 2025-05-15
    price $239,999
21. 2025-03-17
    price $249,999
22. 2025-02-21
    listed $257,000 Active
23. 2013-02-14
    soldstatus
24. 2009-08-11
    soldstatus
25. 2009-06-15
    historical
26. 2009-04-02
    listed $64,900
27. 2009-03-16
    soldstatus
28. 1999-06-30
    soldstatus
29. 1996-05-01
    soldstatus $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,791 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,024 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,791
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,846
• − Management: −$1,846
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,524
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,086
• After-tax cash flow: $285/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+451.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-18 Listed $229,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-15 Price Changed $239,999 HARMLS
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $249,999 HARMLS
• 2025-02-21 Listed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2013-02-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-06-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-04-02 Listed $64,900 HARMLS
• 2009-03-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-06-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,791 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.