8428 Swiftwater Ln · Houston, TX 77075

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,526 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1978 9,801 sqft lot $121/sqft · 36% below area Est $289k · 36% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans an impressive 1,526 square feet of living space and is set on a generous 9,801 square foot lot. The open-concept living and dining areas provide a seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring granite countertops, warm wood cabinetry, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a pantry, offering excellent functionality and ample storage. Nestled on an oversized 9,801 square foot lot, the expansive backyard and covered patio create the perfect setting for relaxation, gatherings, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and key amenities, the home is easily accessible via Beltway 8, I-45, and Hwy 288. This true blank canvas is ready for personalization or investment strategy. Offered as-is, it’s not located in a flood zone.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Covered patio
• Double ovens

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AND DINING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DOUBLE OVENS
• GAS COOKTOP
• EXPANSIVE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.64%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,184
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -36.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8428 Swiftwater Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,526 (0%)	1mo	$185,000	$121	100
8614 Viera Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-2%)	6mo	$299,900	$201	76
8416 Peekskill Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,534 (+0%)	15mo	$260,000	$169	76
8207 Holiday Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,516 (-1%)	12mo	$250,000	$165	70
10219 Carmencita Way	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+6%)	8mo	$314,900	$195	68
8207 Lanham Ln	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (+3%)	9mo	$270,000	$172	62
8304 Holiday Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,730 (+13%)	10mo	$312,900	$181	58
8318 Winthrop St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,634 (+7%)	7mo	$269,000	$165	55
9927 Radio Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,546 (+1%)	15mo	$370,000	$239	50
10414 Collin Park	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+6%)	11mo	$260,000	$161	50
8713 Wayfarer Ln	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,703 (+12%)	14mo	$825,000	$484	49
8314 Tavenor Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-15%)	12mo	$259,900	$200	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-24,236
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,836
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77075

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$400 /mo · $4,794/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,831

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8012 Folkstone Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,900	$1.20	43d	1	0.61mi
8238 Fuqua Gardens Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1787	$1,995	$1.12	5d	1	0.70mi
8020 Botany Ln Unit 1546255P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$3,226	$2.32	16d	1	0.92mi
8911 Durham Manor Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,201	$1.19	5d	1	0.96mi
7821 Fuqua St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,700	$1.21	43d	1	0.97mi
10946 Gulf Valley St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	2179	$1,847	$0.85	24d	1	1.03mi
9737 Fabiola Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2203	$2,200	$1.00	43d	1	1.18mi
10350 Stover St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,625	$1.17	43d	1	1.39mi
9462 Fuqua St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	43d	1	1.41mi
9943 Pearland Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,839	$1.70	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $185,000 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans an impressive 1,526 square feet of living space and is set on a generous 9,801 square foot lot. The open-concept living and dining areas provide a seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring granite countertops, warm wood cabinetry, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a pantry, offering excellent functionality and ample storage. Nestled on an oversized 9,801 square foot lot, the expansive backyard and covered patio create the perfect setting for relaxation, gatherings, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and key amenities, the home is easily accessible via Beltway 8, I-45, and Hwy 288. This true blank canvas is ready for personalization or investment strategy. Offered as-is, it’s not located in a flood zone.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $199,000 Active 857-char remark

   Show marketing remark (857 chars)

   This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home spans an impressive 1,526 square feet of living space and is set on a generous 9,801 square foot lot. The open-concept living and dining areas provide a seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is a chef’s dream, featuring granite countertops, warm wood cabinetry, double ovens, a gas cooktop, and a pantry, offering excellent functionality and ample storage. Nestled on an oversized 9,801 square foot lot, the expansive backyard and covered patio create the perfect setting for relaxation, gatherings, or future enhancements. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and key amenities, the home is easily accessible via Beltway 8, I-45, and Hwy 288. This true blank canvas is ready for personalization or investment strategy. Offered as-is, it’s not located in a flood zone.

3. 2026-03-30
   historical
4. 2026-03-02
   status Active
5. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-17
   listed $199,000 Active
7. 2026-02-04
   historical
8. 2025-12-28
   price $200,000
9. 2025-12-09
   listed $215,500 Active
10. 2025-12-08
    historical
11. 2025-11-11
    price $215,500
12. 2025-09-10
    listed $219,500 Active
13. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus
14. 2023-08-01
    soldstatus
15. 2022-04-12
    soldstatus
16. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,794 · $400/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,794 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,794
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$373
• After-tax cash flow: $1,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,626
• Household income: $69,191
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1573.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 34% Black 14% White 7% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 60% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.33%
• Current HPI: 260.3733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-17 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $215,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $215,500 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Listed $219,500 HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,794 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.