11453 Bayview Edison Rd #23 · Bay View, WA 98273

$149,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 888 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 2008 1,120 sqft lot $169/sqft · 443% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy peaceful coastal living in this desirable 2008 Fleetwood home overlooking beautiful Padilla Bay! Meticulously maintained and move-in ready, this home features numerous updates including a new roof, carpeting, plumbing, and water heater and more! The open-concept living and dining area is filled with natural light and designed for comfort, highlighted by a spacious kitchen with ample storage and a window framing serene bay views. The primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a large step-in shower, while a second bedroom provides flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobby space. Step outside to two inviting porches—perfect for morning coffee or unwinding in the evening

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New carpeting
• New water heater

Tags

• OVERLOOKING PADILLA BAY
• NEW ROOF
• NEW CARPETING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW WATER HEATER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#281 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Burlington-Edison School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #229 of 291 in WA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 561 units permitted in Skagit County in 2024 (270 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Skagit County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $150k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,454 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $27,614
• List price: $149,950
• Delta: 443.02%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,134
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $36,837
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98273

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $995/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,179

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,950 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,950 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,950 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,950 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,950 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,950 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,950 Active 84 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,950 Active 83 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,950 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,950 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,950 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,950 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,950 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,950 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,950 Active 74 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,950 Active 73 DOM
18. 2026-04-06
    price $149,950
19. 2026-03-18
    listed $159,950 Active
20. 2023-03-24
    soldstatus $94,800 Closed
21. 2023-02-27
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
22. 2023-02-21
    status Active
23. 2023-02-19
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
24. 2023-02-16
    status Active
25. 2023-02-11
    status Pending - Backup Offer Requested
26. 2023-02-09
    listed $94,800 Active
27. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus $57,000 Sold
28. 2016-06-09
    status Pending Inspection
29. 2016-05-06
    listed $60,000 Active
30. 2014-10-24
    historical
31. 2014-10-24
    soldstatus $46,000 Sold
32. 2014-10-15
    status Pending
33. 2014-10-02
    status Pending Inspection
34. 2014-04-30
    listed $54,900 Active
35. 2012-06-01
    soldstatus $34,888 Sold
36. 2012-05-22
    status Pending
37. 2012-04-11
    price $34,888
38. 2011-11-08
    price $39,888
39. 2011-05-10
    listed $45,000 Active
40. 2006-08-07
    soldstatus $11,000
41. 2006-06-23
    listed $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $995 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 47.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥81°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$995
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $3,323
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$798
• After-tax cash flow: $4,790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burlington-Edison School District
• NCES district ID: 5300780
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,128
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #9782
• State rank: #229 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bay View

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #281
• US rank: #9698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay View, WA
• County: Skagit County · 118,108 people
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• Population (ZIP): 30,001
• Household income: $76,717
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1045.0

Population outlook (Skagit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 131,498 people
• By 2030: 135,556 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 141,717 · +7.8%
• By 2050: 145,714 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 152,201 · +15.7%
• By 2100: 147,980 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Skagit

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 52.9% · R 44.0% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.7pp no change · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+7.5 2016: D+3.2 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -525.00%
• Current HPI: 395.3742
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.33%
• Metro: Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+934.1% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $149,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Listed $159,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-24 Sold (MLS) $94,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-21 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-19 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-16 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-11 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-09 Listed $94,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-22 Sold (MLS) $57,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-06 Listed $60,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-24 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-24 Sold (MLS) $46,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-30 Listed $54,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-01 Sold (MLS) $34,888 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-11 Price Changed $34,888 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-08 Price Changed $39,888 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-05-10 Listed $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-07 Sold (MLS) $11,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-23 Listed $14,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $995 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.