3209 Oak Hill Dr · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$84,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 826 sqft · Manufactured public records · 166 Days on market

Built 1996 9,801 sqft lot $103/sqft · 130% above area $4/mo HOA ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the space, freedom, and Lake Granbury lifestyle buyers are craving! Sitting on nearly half an acre across two lots, this two-bed, two-bath home delivers room to breathe, room to store, and room to live — all in a well-established Granbury community with incredible amenities! Inside, you’ll love the flexible layout featuring two generously sized primary bedrooms, each with its own full bath — ideal for roommates, guests, or multi-generational living. One suite offers handicap-accessible features, adding comfort and versatility rarely found at this price point. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a bright, open feel that instantly feels like home. Step outside and the value really shows! The oversized yard gives you endless possibilities — garden, workshop projects, outdoor entertaining, or simply enjoying quiet Texas evenings. Multiple storage buildings provide plenty of space for tools, hobbies, and lake toys, while the gated entry adds charm and function. And then there’s the lifestyle: As a resident of Oak Hills, you gain access to community pools, playgrounds, sports areas, a fishing pier, and a boat ramp — putting lake life within minutes of your front door. Whether it’s weekend boating, fishing at sunset, or a fun time at the park, this neighborhood makes it easy to enjoy it all. Homes with this much land, this much functionality, and this many amenities don’t come around often — and they don’t sit long. If you’re looking for affordable space near Lake Granbury, this is one you need to see now, not later! Flip Ready, Light Rehab or Heavy Rehab, Contractor Special, Priced for Immediate Sale, Make This One Shine, Endless Potential, Bring Your Vision, Bring Your Crew, Perfect Starter Flip, Investor Target Area

Key facts

• Two lots
• Oversized yard
• Flexible layout

Tags

• NEARLY HALF AN ACRE
• TWO LOTS
• FLEXIBLE LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED YARD
• MULTIPLE STORAGE BUILDINGS
• GATED ENTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.73%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $40,000
• List price: $84,900
• Delta: 112.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3024 Elmwood Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	896 (+8%)	4mo	$40,000	$45	72
2716 Forest Park Dr	0.68mi	2/1.0	720 (-13%)	6mo	$35,000	$49	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $18,636
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $51,039
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $642/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$4
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3225 Evergreen Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,425	$1.56	1d	1	0.28mi
3007 Inwood Trl Granbury, TX	1.0	1.0	902	$800	$0.89	19d	1	0.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $4 · $48/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-02
   price $84,900 1831-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1831 chars)

   Welcome to the space, freedom, and Lake Granbury lifestyle buyers are craving! Sitting on nearly half an acre across two lots, this two-bed, two-bath home delivers room to breathe, room to store, and room to live — all in a well-established Granbury community with incredible amenities! Inside, you’ll love the flexible layout featuring two generously sized primary bedrooms, each with its own full bath — ideal for roommates, guests, or multi-generational living. One suite offers handicap-accessible features, adding comfort and versatility rarely found at this price point. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a bright, open feel that instantly feels like home. Step outside and the value really shows! The oversized yard gives you endless possibilities — garden, workshop projects, outdoor entertaining, or simply enjoying quiet Texas evenings. Multiple storage buildings provide plenty of space for tools, hobbies, and lake toys, while the gated entry adds charm and function. And then there’s the lifestyle: As a resident of Oak Hills, you gain access to community pools, playgrounds, sports areas, a fishing pier, and a boat ramp — putting lake life within minutes of your front door. Whether it’s weekend boating, fishing at sunset, or a fun time at the park, this neighborhood makes it easy to enjoy it all. Homes with this much land, this much functionality, and this many amenities don’t come around often — and they don’t sit long. If you’re looking for affordable space near Lake Granbury, this is one you need to see now, not later! Flip Ready, Light Rehab or Heavy Rehab, Contractor Special, Priced for Immediate Sale, Make This One Shine, Endless Potential, Bring Your Vision, Bring Your Crew, Perfect Starter Flip, Investor Target Area

2. 2026-02-07
   price $89,900 1831-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1831 chars)

   Welcome to the space, freedom, and Lake Granbury lifestyle buyers are craving! Sitting on nearly half an acre across two lots, this two-bed, two-bath home delivers room to breathe, room to store, and room to live — all in a well-established Granbury community with incredible amenities! Inside, you’ll love the flexible layout featuring two generously sized primary bedrooms, each with its own full bath — ideal for roommates, guests, or multi-generational living. One suite offers handicap-accessible features, adding comfort and versatility rarely found at this price point. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a bright, open feel that instantly feels like home. Step outside and the value really shows! The oversized yard gives you endless possibilities — garden, workshop projects, outdoor entertaining, or simply enjoying quiet Texas evenings. Multiple storage buildings provide plenty of space for tools, hobbies, and lake toys, while the gated entry adds charm and function. And then there’s the lifestyle: As a resident of Oak Hills, you gain access to community pools, playgrounds, sports areas, a fishing pier, and a boat ramp — putting lake life within minutes of your front door. Whether it’s weekend boating, fishing at sunset, or a fun time at the park, this neighborhood makes it easy to enjoy it all. Homes with this much land, this much functionality, and this many amenities don’t come around often — and they don’t sit long. If you’re looking for affordable space near Lake Granbury, this is one you need to see now, not later! Flip Ready, Light Rehab or Heavy Rehab, Contractor Special, Priced for Immediate Sale, Make This One Shine, Endless Potential, Bring Your Vision, Bring Your Crew, Perfect Starter Flip, Investor Target Area

3. 2025-12-11
   listed $99,900 Active 1831-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1831 chars)

   Welcome to the space, freedom, and Lake Granbury lifestyle buyers are craving! Sitting on nearly half an acre across two lots, this two-bed, two-bath home delivers room to breathe, room to store, and room to live — all in a well-established Granbury community with incredible amenities! Inside, you’ll love the flexible layout featuring two generously sized primary bedrooms, each with its own full bath — ideal for roommates, guests, or multi-generational living. One suite offers handicap-accessible features, adding comfort and versatility rarely found at this price point. Natural light fills the living spaces, creating a bright, open feel that instantly feels like home. Step outside and the value really shows! The oversized yard gives you endless possibilities — garden, workshop projects, outdoor entertaining, or simply enjoying quiet Texas evenings. Multiple storage buildings provide plenty of space for tools, hobbies, and lake toys, while the gated entry adds charm and function. And then there’s the lifestyle: As a resident of Oak Hills, you gain access to community pools, playgrounds, sports areas, a fishing pier, and a boat ramp — putting lake life within minutes of your front door. Whether it’s weekend boating, fishing at sunset, or a fun time at the park, this neighborhood makes it easy to enjoy it all. Homes with this much land, this much functionality, and this many amenities don’t come around often — and they don’t sit long. If you’re looking for affordable space near Lake Granbury, this is one you need to see now, not later! Flip Ready, Light Rehab or Heavy Rehab, Contractor Special, Priced for Immediate Sale, Make This One Shine, Endless Potential, Bring Your Vision, Bring Your Crew, Perfect Starter Flip, Investor Target Area

4. 2025-10-20
   historical
5. 2025-08-14
   listed $109,900 Active
6. 2025-07-25
   historical
7. 2025-04-16
   price $123,500
8. 2025-03-14
   listed $124,900 Active
9. 2024-12-31
   soldstatus
10. 2022-12-28
    soldstatus
11. 2004-11-01
    soldstatus
12. 2004-03-02
    soldstatus
13. 2003-07-03
    soldstatus
14. 2002-11-05
    soldstatus
15. 2001-01-09
    soldstatus
16. 2001-01-09
    soldstatus
17. 2000-10-17
    soldstatus
18. 1999-07-02
    soldstatus
19. 1996-04-29
    soldstatus
20. 1996-04-26
    soldstatus
21. 1982-09-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $642 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,554 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$912/yr (+$76/mo · 142.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$642
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − HOA: −$48
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $5,535
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,328
• After-tax cash flow: $5,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $84,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $99,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $109,900 NTREIS
• 2025-07-25 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $123,500 NTREIS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2024-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-11-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1982-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $642 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.