468 S Paseo Aguila Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$79,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 265 Days on market

Built 1964 $375/mo HOA · 26% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable Villa Under $90,000 - A Rare Find! This well-maintained villa is a versatile opportunity for homeowners, seasonal residents, or savvy investors. Move in today and enjoy the shade trees, a neutral interior palette, and a newer curved window that fills the space with natural light. This home is your canvas--customize at your own pace while enjoying features like a step-in soaking tub/shower for relaxation and a detached shed with a washer and dryer for added convenience and storage - OR enjoy it as it is. Imagine sipping coffee on your patio with a water feature for a serene touch--easy to add and perfect for creating your personal oasis. With its low-maintenance design, prime l

Key facts

• Step-in soaking tub
• Desirable location
• Detached shed

Tags

• DETACHED SHED
• STEP-IN SOAKING TUB
• NEUTRAL INTERIOR PALETTE
• CURVED WINDOW
• LOW-MAINTENANCE DESIGN
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include pool, paved streets, sidewalks, and park
• HOA & community: Part of Villa East association; Monthly HOA fee (reported): $375; Association amenities include pool, park, and laundry; HOA covers cable/satellite, common area maintenance, exterior unit maintenance, front yard maintenance, pest control, roof repair/replacement, sewer, and street maintenance; Road maintenance handled by HOA

Exterior

• Security: Wrought iron security door; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Condominium; Single-story; Faces east
• Construction: Built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered paver slab patio; Block fencing; Decorative gravel; Borders common area; East/West exposure; Paved road; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Gas range
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-pane windows; Exhaust fan; Smoke detector(s); Wrought iron security door; Other bath modification (accessibility)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer and dryer included; Laundry storage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $79k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $5,052
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $39,830
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,439 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,166

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $270	-5% $243	+0% $216	+5% $188	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $102	-5% $159	+0% $216	+5% $273	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $236	base $216	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.02mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	18d	1	0.15mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	18d	1	0.15mi
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.16mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.17mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.17mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	3d	1	0.20mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.20mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.30mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	3d	1	0.41mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.51mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 263 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 262 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 260 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 256 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 248 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 247 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $84,000
15. 2026-02-13
    price $88,500
16. 2025-12-16
    price $92,000
17. 2025-09-26
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,381
• − Management: −$1,381
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $1,700
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$408
• After-tax cash flow: $2,181/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $84,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $88,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $92,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-26 Listed $99,900 MLSSAZ