6414 S US 31 St · South Bend, IN 46614

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1947 10,019 sqft lot Est $160k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brick 2 bedroom ranch just south of Kern Rd. This home has a strong rental history and could be a great starter home or investment property. Some recent improvements include connection to city sewer, updated windows, new roof (7 years), partially updated bathroom, nice sized shed and a new boiler in 2016. Just some cosmetic updates are needed. Home is to be sold as-is.

Key facts

• New boiler
• Updated windows
• New roof

Tags

• CONNECTION TO CITY SEWER
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• NEW ROOF
• PARTIALLY UPDATED BATHROOM
• NICE SIZED SHED
• NEW BOILER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (site-built); One story
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 60 x 165 (0.23 acres); Subdivision: None

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Hot water heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Living room fireplace (1 fireplace); Crawl space basement; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($463/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.4% in South Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Marshall Traditional School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #737 of 994 statewide, top 76%, 397 students, 59% FRL); Jackson Middle School (math 3% / reading 8%, grade F, #326 of 330 statewide, top 99%, 528 students, 82% FRL); Riley High School (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #293 of 369 statewide, top 80%, 992 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools at 70% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 190 active listings in the ZIP; 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,783 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,936
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19778 Lucinda St	0.30mi	2/1.0	720 (-12%)	1mo	$163,900	$228	66
19829 Detroit Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0	736 (-10%)	8mo	$144,000	$196	62
19845 Kern Rd	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	925 (+13%)	10mo	$170,000	$184	54
19870 Detroit Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0	720 (-12%)	19mo	$148,000	$206	52
19711 Pasadena Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (+15%)	5mo	$160,000	$171	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-18,589
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-12,947
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46614

• Home prices YoY: -32.0%
• Active inventory: 190
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$164 /mo · $1,967/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $130,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $130,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $130,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $130,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $130,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $130,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $130,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $130,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-22
    listed $130,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,967 · $164/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,967 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,967
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$410
• After-tax cash flow: $873/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #13730

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bend, IN
• County: Saint Joseph County · 189,048 people
• City population: 99,767
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,602
• Household income: $74,153
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 496.0

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.12%
• Current HPI: 212.2634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $130,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,967 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.