303 Lombardy Ln · Forrest City, AR 72335

$124,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1986 0.67 ac lot $97/sqft · 5% below area Est $131k · 5% under ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.6/10.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this light, bright, and fully renovated, 3-bedroom, 1-bath contemporary home which sits on a beautiful . 67-acre lot in a convenient location within a well-maintained neighborhood. Featuring a brand-new kitchen and bathroom, new roof, flooring, windows, and central heating and air, every detail has been thoughtfully updated. A detached work shed adds extra storage and functionality, making this move-in-ready property the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• Built 1986
• Listed 67 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $205 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $118k (5.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#297 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Forrest City School District (town): math 12% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #230 of 238 in AR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 93% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Francis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $861 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Francis County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,030 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.07%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,210
• List price: $124,500
• Delta: -5.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2224 Appling Cove Cvs	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,323 (+3%)	5mo	$175,000	$132	77
166 Tallwood St	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+2%)	12mo	$130,000	$98	69
707 Maple	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,098 (-15%)	11mo	$120,000	$109	41
825 Old Madison Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,431 (+11%)	14mo	$62,500	$44	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,166
• Equity at exit: $18,563

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $10,332
• Equity at exit: $10,764

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72335

• Home prices YoY: -4.9%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,180 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $269/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $205

Break-even live

Break-even rent $920

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $124,500 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $124,500 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,500 Price Change 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,500 Price Change 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,500 Price Change 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $124,500 Price Change 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricestatusdays on market $124,500 Price Change 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,500 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,500 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $128,500 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $128,500 Price Change 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,500 Price Change 51 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,500 Price Change 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,500 Price Change 49 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,500 Price Change 48 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $129,500 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Step into this light, bright, and fully renovated, 3-bedroom, 1-bath contemporary home which sits on a beautiful . 67-acre lot in a convenient location within a well-maintained neighborhood. Featuring a brand-new kitchen and bathroom, new roof, flooring, windows, and central heating and air, every detail has been thoughtfully updated. A detached work shed adds extra storage and functionality, making this move-in-ready property the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

18. 2026-04-29
    price $132,500 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Step into this light, bright, and fully renovated, 3-bedroom, 1-bath contemporary home which sits on a beautiful . 67-acre lot in a convenient location within a well-maintained neighborhood. Featuring a brand-new kitchen and bathroom, new roof, flooring, windows, and central heating and air, every detail has been thoughtfully updated. A detached work shed adds extra storage and functionality, making this move-in-ready property the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

19. 2026-04-12
    listed $135,000 New Listing 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Step into this light, bright, and fully renovated, 3-bedroom, 1-bath contemporary home which sits on a beautiful . 67-acre lot in a convenient location within a well-maintained neighborhood. Featuring a brand-new kitchen and bathroom, new roof, flooring, windows, and central heating and air, every detail has been thoughtfully updated. A detached work shed adds extra storage and functionality, making this move-in-ready property the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $269 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $797 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 196.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$269
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,133
• − Management: −$1,133
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable income: $410
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forrest City School District
• NCES district ID: 0506270
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,153
• Composite: 9.07/100
• National rank: #9871
• State rank: #230 of 238 in AR

Livability — Forrest City

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #20349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forrest City, AR
• Population (ZIP): 16,514

Population outlook (St. Francis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 23,269 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 21,122 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 19,281 · -20.9%
• By 2075: 15,222 · -37.6%
• By 2100: 11,449 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francis

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 48.6% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 0.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.7 2020: D+5.1 2016: D+11.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.86%
• Current HPI: 133.8115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $129,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $132,500 CARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $135,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $269 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.