1055 Happy Hollow Rd · Shepherdsville, KY 40110

$104,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

0.98 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Mature trees, rolling Kentucky hills, and nearly an acre on the same road as Jim Beam, minutes from Bernheim Forest's 16,000 acres of old-growth canopy and the wineries, trails, and tasting rooms that define the bourbon corridor. The existing structure sits above a two-car garage, giving the next owner real bones to work with. Renovate what is there, rebuild from the garage up, or reimagine it entirely. The land does not need improvement. The hills, the trees, and the long winding drive are already in place. What you build here is entirely up to you. Very few properties in this corridor offer that kind of freedom on land the surrounding area spent a century becoming.

Key facts

• Long winding drive
• Nearly an acre
• Old growth canopy

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• OLD GROWTH CANOPY
• LONG WINDING DRIVE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions available to the property
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage on the lower level
• Utilities: Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slate roof; Poured concrete foundation; Year built listed as 999
• Exterior features: Nearly 1-acre lot (0.98 acres); No fencing reported

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Unfinished basement with outside entry; Living room on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $104k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $104k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.5% in Shepherdsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#119 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullitt County (suburban): math 29% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #55 of 165 in KY (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 380 units permitted in Bullitt County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($719 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bullitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $104k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,440 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.35%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $21,221
• Equity at exit: $46,763

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.18×
• Total profit: $63,425
• Equity at exit: $72,067

Cash invested: $29,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40110

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,082 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$545
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $765/yr
• Insurance: −$43
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $104,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $195	-5% $166	+0% $136	+5% $107	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $51	-5% $93	+0% $136	+5% $179	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $189	-0.5pp $163	base $136	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,000
• Closing costs: $3,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $104,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $765 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 17.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,989
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,826
• − Property taxes: −$765
• − Insurance: −$1,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$3,025
• Taxable loss: −$22
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5
• After-tax cash flow: $1,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullitt County
• NCES district ID: 2100750
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,009
• Composite: 30.78/100
• National rank: #6151
• State rank: #55 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shepherdsville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #5674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 38,403
• Population (ZIP): 478

Population outlook (Bullitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,555 people
• By 2030: 94,389 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 102,759 · +14.7%
• By 2050: 108,955 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 121,898 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 126,383 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Bullitt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 23.8% · R 74.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.7pp toward R · 2008: -32.3pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+35.7 2008: R+32.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+100.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $135,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $67,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $765 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.