6955 Alvin York Ln · Blanchard, LA 71107

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1985 5.00 ac lot $101/sqft · at area comps Est $179k · at est. ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

Key facts

• 5 acres fenced
• Covered front porch
• Utility room

Tags

• 5 ACRES FENCED
• LARGE KITCHEN
• UTILITY ROOM
• EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• CARPORT PARKING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.8% in Blanchard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#103 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.92%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,726
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -4.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6931 Alvin York Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	12mo	$125,000	$86	62
1332 Hollow Oaks Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	4mo	$159,995	$102	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,182
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,452
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71107

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,516 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,269

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $169,900 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $172,400 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,400 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,400 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,400 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $172,400 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,400 Active 145 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,400 Active 144 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,400 Active 143 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,400 Active 142 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $172,400 Active 141 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $172,400 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

18. 2026-04-17
    price $174,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

19. 2026-03-27
    price $184,500 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

20. 2026-03-19
    price $184,900 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

21. 2026-01-09
    listed $189,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    5 ACRES FENCED, DEAD END OF STREET, PEACEFUL SERENITY. REMOTE MASTER, LARGE KITCHEN WITH AMPLE CABINET SPACE, UTILITY ROOM, EXTRA LARGE SUNROOM 12 x 28 WITH WINDOWS OVERLOOKING 5 ACRES, NICE DECK ON BACK OF PROPERTY, COVERED FRONT PORCH, CARPORT PARKING SPACE. BRAND NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM INSTALLED 2026!!

22. 1995-11-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $934 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$446/yr (+$37/mo · 91.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,192
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,455
• − Management: −$1,455
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$124
• After-tax cash flow: $2,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Blanchard

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #103
• US rank: #10091

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caddo Parish · 178,536 people
• City population: 95
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• Population (ZIP): 31,734
• Household income: $48,365
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1346.0

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 51% White 43% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.11%
• Current HPI: 117.801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shreveport-Bossier City, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-9.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $172,400 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $174,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $184,500 NTREIS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $184,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 1995-11-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.