2873 Warwick Loop · Bismarck, ND 58504

$139,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,140 sqft · Townhouse

Built 1981 547 sqft lot $200/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GAS FP HAS REMOTE CONTROL-NEW GARAGE DOOR-$100 ASSESSMENT DUE IN SEPT-DUES $84/MO-EXCL VALANCES & SHELF ABOVE PATIO DOOR-SHOWS WELL-INGREAT CONDITION Basement - FULL.

Key facts

• $200 HOA
• Garage
• Pool

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $139,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$398,040) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $321 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $139,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.84%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $398,040
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2873 Warwick Loop Unit A	0.00mi	2/1.5	2,140 (0%)	5mo	$139,900	$65	96
3003 Baltimore Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,922 (-10%)	10mo	$539,900	$281	56
3425 Meridian Dr	0.50mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,072 (-3%)	11mo	$385,000	$186	53
3708 Downing St	0.71mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,192 (+2%)	1mo	$599,900	$274	53
3533 Meridian Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (-5%)	8mo	$369,900	$181	50
3811 Stacy Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,052 (-4%)	4mo	$369,900	$180	46
313 Irvine Loop	0.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,896 (-11%)	18mo	$349,900	$185	43
208 Nina Ln	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,042 (-5%)	19mo	$399,990	$196	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,428
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $23,364
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,883 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $321

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,477

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2900 Kamrose Dr Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,172	$2.09	20d	33	0.08mi
119 Irvine Loop Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,058	$2.11	20d	1	0.26mi
121 Sleeper Way Lincoln, ND	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,395	$1.48	20d	1	0.37mi
127 Stuttgart Dr Unit 1 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	20d	1	0.74mi
1543 S Washington St Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	20d	1	1.04mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,620	$1.41	20d	12	1.12mi
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,748	$1.48	20d	19	1.19mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-01-06
   historical
2. 2026-01-06
   listed $139,900
3. 2025-10-30
   price $169,999
4. 1998-08-28
   soldstatus 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   GAS FP HAS REMOTE CONTROL-NEW GARAGE DOOR-$100 ASSESSMENT DUE IN SEPT-DUES $84/MO-EXCL VALANCES & SHELF ABOVE PATIO DOOR-SHOWS WELL-INGREAT CONDITION Basement - FULL.

5. 1998-07-10
   listed $68,900 172-char remark

   Show marketing remark (172 chars)

   GAS FP HAS REMOTE CONTROL-NEW GARAGE DOOR-$100 ASSESSMENT DUE IN SEPT-DUES $84/MO-EXCL VALANCES & SHELF ABOVE PATIO DOOR-SHOWS WELL-INGREAT CONDITION Basement - FULL.

6. 1996-09-13
   soldstatus
7. 1996-05-01
   soldstatus
8. 1996-04-29
   listed $65,900
9. 1996-02-22
   listed $66,650
10. 1995-06-19
    soldstatus
11. 1995-03-11
    listed $63,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,808
• − Management: −$1,808
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$451
• After-tax cash flow: $3,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+118.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-06 Listed $139,900 GNMLS
• 2026-01-06 Delisted — GNMLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $169,999 GNMLS
• 1998-08-28 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1998-07-10 Listed $68,900 GNMLS
• 1996-09-13 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-05-01 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1996-04-29 Listed $65,900 GNMLS
• 1996-02-22 Listed $66,650 GNMLS
• 1995-06-19 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 1995-03-11 Listed $63,900 GNMLS