379 Dutton Island Rd W · Jacksonville, FL 32233

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2007 Est $446k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Minutes to schools
• Minutes to shopping

Tags

• FULL KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• NICE SIZED BACKYARD
• MINUTES TO SHOPPING
• MINUTES TO SCHOOLS
• MINUTES TO BEACHES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2007
• Construction: 1,320 living area
• Exterior features: Located in the North Beach subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-128/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Neptune Beach Elementary School (math 74% / reading 70%, grade A-, #288 of 2,144 statewide, top 15%, 782 students, 31% FRL); Mayport Middle School (math 52% / reading 53%, grade C+, #213 of 571 statewide, top 38%, 833 students, 36% FRL); Duncan U. Fletcher High School (math 32% / reading 57%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 2,067 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 49% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $305k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,939 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.15%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $446,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2150 Cypress Landing Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+6%)	3mo	$360,000	$257	71
2265 Destine Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,342 (+2%)	2mo	$315,000	$235	68
1109 Hibiscus St	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-2%)	0mo	$350,000	$272	67
2273 Fairway Villas Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+8%)	2mo	$485,000	$340	66
1157 Violet St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,414 (+7%)	5mo	$445,000	$315	62
2135 Fairway Villas Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+8%)	2mo	$484,900	$340	61
1285 Munson Cove Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,257 (-5%)	4mo	$299,000	$238	59
740 Bonita Rd	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,304 (-1%)	1mo	$600,000	$460	58
1673 Linkside Ct N	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,447 (+10%)	2mo	$677,000	$468	58
751 Camelia St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-6%)	3mo	$469,000	$376	54
1093 Hibiscus St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,164 (-12%)	5mo	$343,000	$295	51
1528 Jordan St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-15%)	5mo	$380,000	$338	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-47,323
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-30,392
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32233

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,389 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,061/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,403

Max offer price $303,122

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $76	+0% $-11	+5% $-97	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-199	-5% $-105	+0% $-11	+5% $84	+10% $178
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $67	base $-11	+0.5pp $-90	+1.0pp $-170

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2077 Dutton Island Oaks Way Atlantic Beach, FL	4.0	2.5	1866	$2,849	$1.53	3d	1	0.10mi
1984 Mary St Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1244	$1,800	$1.45	6d	1	0.13mi
1927 Main St Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1428	$2,250	$1.58	22d	1	0.17mi
2160 Mayport Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,012	$2.12	4d	10	0.22mi
2130 Mayport Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	984	$2,039	$2.07	3d	21	0.26mi
2137 Featherwood Dr W Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1555	$2,421	$1.56	5d	1	0.29mi
70 Robert St Atlantic Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$2,400	$2.42	19d	1	0.29mi
66 W 14th St Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1332	$2,750	$2.06	6d	1	0.46mi
2610 State Rd Atlantic Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	811	$1,783	$2.20	3d	25	0.54mi
1115 Main St Atlantic Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1480	$3,000	$2.03	25d	1	0.55mi
826 Amberjack Ln Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$1,800	$1.85	16d	1	0.65mi
826 Amberjack Ln Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	975	$1,800	$1.85	9d	1	0.65mi
900 Plaza Atlantic Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,100	$2.30	5d	17	0.65mi
1621 Cove Landing Dr Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.5	1810	$850	$0.47	25d	1	0.74mi
707 Amberjack Ln Atlantic Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	1765	$3,750	$2.12	16d	1	0.75mi
450 Aquatic Dr Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1256	$2,800	$2.23	3d	1	0.85mi
1085 Atlantic Blvd Atlantic Beach, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,598	$1.80	25d	1	1.05mi
760 Triton Rd Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	1.5	975	$2,400	$2.46	25d	1	1.07mi
1365 Seminole Rd Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$3,400	$2.68	6d	1	1.11mi
2650 Sandy Dune Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1660	$2,250	$1.36	25d	1	1.25mi
2583 Sandy Dune Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1706	$2,300	$1.35	19d	1	1.28mi
2607 Sandy Dune Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1707	$2,250	$1.32	25d	1	1.29mi
1232 Galapagos Ave S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1533	$2,950	$1.92	19d	1	1.35mi
2548 Americas Cup Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,895	$1.73	16d	1	1.35mi
1881 Beach Ave Unit 1881-1 Atlantic Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,800	$2.80	5d	1	1.35mi
901 Ocean Blvd #39 Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1122	$3,950	$3.52	18d	1	1.37mi
10 10th St Atlantic Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1654	$4,250	$2.57	23d	1	1.43mi
701 Beach Ave #203 Atlantic Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1559	$5,985	$3.84	25d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $305,000 Active
3. 2018-08-16
   soldstatus $157,000
4. 2018-08-10
   soldstatus $157,000 Sold 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

5. 2018-07-23
   status Pending 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

6. 2018-06-24
   historical Active - Contingent 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

7. 2018-05-23
   price $160,000 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

8. 2018-05-02
   price $168,000 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

9. 2018-04-10
   price $174,900 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

10. 2018-03-29
    listed $179,900 Active 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Want to live at the beach, then this is for you. Come see this wonderful 3 bedroom / 2 bath townhouse that has all you could want. Features a family room, full kitchen, dining area and a nice sized backyard for all your outdoor entertaining. Minutes to shopping, schools, NS Mayport and the beaches.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,061 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$471/yr (+$39/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$2,061
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,294
• − Management: −$2,294
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$5,458
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,310
• After-tax cash flow: $1,182/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,633
• Household income: $89,185
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 879.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -560.12%
• Current HPI: 347.9004
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+69.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $305,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-10 Sold (MLS) $157,000 realMLS
• 2018-07-23 Pending — realMLS
• 2018-06-24 Contingent — realMLS
• 2018-05-23 Price Changed $160,000 realMLS
• 2018-05-02 Price Changed $168,000 realMLS
• 2018-04-10 Price Changed $174,900 realMLS
• 2018-03-29 Listed $179,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,061 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.