606 4th Ct NW · Reform, AL 35481

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2010 Est $89k · 40% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

LOVELY FAMILY HOME, ESTATE SALE.

Key facts

• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-585/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#238 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pickens County (rural): math 7% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #108 of 129 in AL (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Reform Elementary School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #508 of 627 statewide, top 84%, 209 students, 77% FRL); Pickens County High School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #252 of 305 statewide, top 84%, 293 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Pickens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Pickens County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $125k implies a 992% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,180 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.67%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
402 3rd Avenue Southeast	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,315 (+6%)	7mo	$95,000	$72	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $14,660
• Equity at exit: $59,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $53,301
• Equity at exit: $93,319

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35481

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $117,949

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-6	+0% $-49	+5% $-92	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-130	-5% $-89	+0% $-49	+5% $-8	+10% $33
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-17	base $-49	+0.5pp $-81	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-10
   listed $125,000 Active
3. 2002-12-04
   soldstatus $11,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,382
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$991
• − Management: −$991
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $72/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pickens County
• NCES district ID: 0102730
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,043
• Composite: 15.18/100
• National rank: #9342
• State rank: #108 of 129 in AL

Livability — Reform

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #17525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reform, AL
• Population (ZIP): 2,909

Population outlook (Pickens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,794 people
• By 2030: 25,224 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 27,833 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 30,077 · +26.4%
• By 2075: 34,120 · +43.4%
• By 2100: 35,388 · +48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 46% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pickens

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.3) · D 38.1% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -8.3pp · 2024: -23.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.3 2020: R+16.3 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+7.0 2008: R+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.40%
• Current HPI: 143.9504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+991.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Pending — WAMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $125,000 WAMLS
• 2002-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $11,450 Public Records