615 Bailey Dr #4 Dr · Mansfield, OH 44904

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Condo public records · 266 Days on market

Built 1973 $89/sqft · 18% above area Est $68k · 18% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity available in Wiltshire. 2 Bedroom/1 bath spacious condo. Covered balcony to enjoy! Comes with a covered parking space and a storage room. Conveniently located near shopping on Lexington Ave and is in Lexington Schools. Property must be owner occupied.

Key facts

• Storage room
• Covered balcony
• Built 1973

Tags

• COVERED BALCONY
• COVERED PARKING SPACE
• STORAGE ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 4.2% in Mansfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#224 in OH, #3,525 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, amenities D-.
• Lexington Local (suburban): math 72% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #113 of 656 in OH (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 145 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 266 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 266 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.51%
• DSCR: 2.09
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $68,046
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: 17.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $16,168
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $51,573
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44904

• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $713/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $648

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
587 Bailey Dr Unit 13 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$955	$0.96	43d	1	0.05mi
1386 Robinhood Ln Unit 7 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$975	$0.97	43d	1	0.79mi
793 Sunset Blvd Bldg 6-7 Mansfield, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	44d	1	1.15mi
425 W Cook Rd Mansfield, OH	1.0	1.0	650	$800	$1.23	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $80,000 Active 266 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 265 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 260 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 256 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 255 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 254 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 251 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 250 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 249 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 248 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 247 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $80,000 Active 246 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    price $80,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Great opportunity available in Wiltshire. 2 Bedroom/1 bath spacious condo. Covered balcony to enjoy! Comes with a covered parking space and a storage room. Conveniently located near shopping on Lexington Ave and is in Lexington Schools. Property must be owner occupied.

18. 2025-11-15
    price $82,500 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Great opportunity available in Wiltshire. 2 Bedroom/1 bath spacious condo. Covered balcony to enjoy! Comes with a covered parking space and a storage room. Conveniently located near shopping on Lexington Ave and is in Lexington Schools. Property must be owner occupied.

19. 2025-09-26
    listed $83,500 Active 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Great opportunity available in Wiltshire. 2 Bedroom/1 bath spacious condo. Covered balcony to enjoy! Comes with a covered parking space and a storage room. Conveniently located near shopping on Lexington Ave and is in Lexington Schools. Property must be owner occupied.

20. 2024-07-09
    soldstatus $76,000
21. 2024-06-21
    soldstatus $76,000 Closed 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Wiltshire Condominium, 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 896 sq ft. Desirable 2nd floor end unit! This unit has additional windows allowing lots of extra light. Plus as a mid level unit it stays warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. In a quiet neighborhood, conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and under 10 minutes to I-71. HOA fee is $195 a month and includes all exterior maintenance, water and sewer, trash removal, lawn care, snow removal and coin operated washers and dryers in the common area. Unit includes a covered carport parking space with additional storage. Pets under 30 lbs welcome! Unit is to be owner-occupied. New resident shall invest in the Wiltshire HOA Reserve Fund in the amount of $2,400.00 to be paid in a lump sum or paid monthly in the amount of $100.00 for the initial twenty-four (24) months of ownership. This is in addition to monthly HOA fees.

22. 2024-05-17
    status Pending 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Wiltshire Condominium, 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 896 sq ft. Desirable 2nd floor end unit! This unit has additional windows allowing lots of extra light. Plus as a mid level unit it stays warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. In a quiet neighborhood, conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and under 10 minutes to I-71. HOA fee is $195 a month and includes all exterior maintenance, water and sewer, trash removal, lawn care, snow removal and coin operated washers and dryers in the common area. Unit includes a covered carport parking space with additional storage. Pets under 30 lbs welcome! Unit is to be owner-occupied. New resident shall invest in the Wiltshire HOA Reserve Fund in the amount of $2,400.00 to be paid in a lump sum or paid monthly in the amount of $100.00 for the initial twenty-four (24) months of ownership. This is in addition to monthly HOA fees.

23. 2024-05-08
    price $74,900 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Wiltshire Condominium, 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 896 sq ft. Desirable 2nd floor end unit! This unit has additional windows allowing lots of extra light. Plus as a mid level unit it stays warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. In a quiet neighborhood, conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and under 10 minutes to I-71. HOA fee is $195 a month and includes all exterior maintenance, water and sewer, trash removal, lawn care, snow removal and coin operated washers and dryers in the common area. Unit includes a covered carport parking space with additional storage. Pets under 30 lbs welcome! Unit is to be owner-occupied. New resident shall invest in the Wiltshire HOA Reserve Fund in the amount of $2,400.00 to be paid in a lump sum or paid monthly in the amount of $100.00 for the initial twenty-four (24) months of ownership. This is in addition to monthly HOA fees.

24. 2024-04-02
    listed $79,900 Active 882-char remark

    Show marketing remark (882 chars)

    Wiltshire Condominium, 2 bedroom, 1 bath, 896 sq ft. Desirable 2nd floor end unit! This unit has additional windows allowing lots of extra light. Plus as a mid level unit it stays warmer in the winter and cooler in the summer. In a quiet neighborhood, conveniently located near shopping, restaurants and under 10 minutes to I-71. HOA fee is $195 a month and includes all exterior maintenance, water and sewer, trash removal, lawn care, snow removal and coin operated washers and dryers in the common area. Unit includes a covered carport parking space with additional storage. Pets under 30 lbs welcome! Unit is to be owner-occupied. New resident shall invest in the Wiltshire HOA Reserve Fund in the amount of $2,400.00 to be paid in a lump sum or paid monthly in the amount of $100.00 for the initial twenty-four (24) months of ownership. This is in addition to monthly HOA fees.

25. 2002-05-16
    soldstatus $54,900
26. 1994-11-01
    soldstatus $43,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $713 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$268/yr (+$22/mo · 37.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$713
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,178
• − Management: −$1,178
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $4,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington Local
• NCES district ID: 3904943
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,984
• Composite: 62.93/100
• National rank: #659
• State rank: #113 of 656 in OH

Livability — Mansfield

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #224
• US rank: #3525

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mansfield, OH
• County: Richland County · 43,943 people
• City population: 16,349
• Metro: Mansfield, OH
• Population (ZIP): 13,450
• Household income: $62,364
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 115,577 people
• By 2030: 111,669 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 103,323 · -10.6%
• By 2050: 95,135 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 76,719 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 57,188 · -50.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.3) · D 28.4% · R 70.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -42.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.3 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+37.5 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.61%
• Current HPI: 203.175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mansfield, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+85.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $80,000 MARMLS
• 2025-11-15 Price Changed $82,500 MARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $83,500 MARMLS
• 2024-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 2024-06-21 Sold (MLS) $76,000 MARMLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — MARMLS
• 2024-05-08 Price Changed $74,900 MARMLS
• 2024-04-02 Listed $79,900 MARMLS
• 2002-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $54,900 Public Records
• 1994-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $713 · +184.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.