304 Jersey Ln · Boerne, TX 78006

$399,470

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 6,664 sqft lot $217/sqft · 21% below area Est $503k · 21% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Available for July 2026! The Springfield boasts a two-story foyer leading into an open Great Room and dining spaces. This four bedroom home includes a Covered Patio and stainless steel appliances, as well as granite in the kitchen.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Open kitchen
• 6,664 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-676 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (24.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (30.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.4% in Boerne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#87 in TX, #3,046 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Boerne ISD (town): math 59% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #42 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kendall El (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #505 of 4,322 statewide, top 13%, 816 students, 23% FRL); Boerne Middle South (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 911 students, 18% FRL); Boerne - Samuel V Champion H S (math 59% / reading 83%, grade B+, #114 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,014 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 18% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 517 units permitted in Kendall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kendall County population projected at +76% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,522 (30.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,747
• List price: $399,470
• Delta: -20.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
141 Country Elm Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,837 (0%)	5mo	$363,490	$198	82
208 Wild Yonder Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,688 (-8%)	0mo	$387,420	$230	79
141 Winding Windmill	0.26mi	4/2.0	1,919 (+4%)	1mo	$370,000	$193	78
133 Merry Calf Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+6%)	1mo	$526,650	$269	75
308 Rustic Barn Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,949 (+6%)	4mo	$499,930	$257	73
312 Brown Swiss Rdg	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,951 (+6%)	4mo	$409,640	$210	72
113 Farming Grv	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+6%)	2mo	$469,540	$241	70
100 Country Elm Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,951 (+6%)	8mo	$409,330	$210	66
109 Grazing Mdw	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,951 (+6%)	8mo	$399,690	$205	66
121 Country Elm Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,079 (+13%)	4mo	$424,200	$204	58
121 Sage Cyn	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,956 (+6%)	2mo	$338,000	$173	52
241 Winding Path	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,068 (+13%)	6mo	$375,000	$181	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-104,909
• Equity at exit: $59,562

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-134,738
• Equity at exit: $34,539

Cash invested: $111,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78006

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,765 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,095
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$499 /mo · $5,992/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$581
• Net cashflow: $-676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,621

Max offer price $301,634

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-400	-5% $-538	+0% $-676	+5% $-814	+10% $-952
Rent	-10% $-895	-5% $-785	+0% $-676	+5% $-567	+10% $-458
Rate	-1.0pp $-475	-0.5pp $-575	base $-676	+0.5pp $-780	+1.0pp $-885

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,868
• Closing costs: $11,984
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
145 Merry Calf Ln Boerne, TX	4.0	3.5	2561	$4,000	$1.56	25d	1	0.15mi
113 Old Ridge Ln Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	2232	$2,950	$1.32	45d	1	0.22mi
108 Country Elm LN Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1951	$2,600	$1.33	25d	1	0.28mi
418 Rustic Grv Boerne, TX	4.0	2.5	2511	$2,825	$1.13	16d	1	0.33mi
301 Rustic Grv Boerne, TX	4.0	3.0	2079	$2,650	$1.27	45d	1	0.39mi
133 Shadow Knls Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,395	$1.22	25d	1	0.66mi
133 Shadow Knls Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,395	$1.22	19d	1	0.66mi
228 Sophia Cir Boerne, TX	5.0	2.5	2528	$2,395	$0.95	45d	1	0.77mi
109 Bethany Way Boerne, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$1,900	$1.22	19d	1	0.84mi
119 Lina Ln Boerne, TX	4.0	2.0	1693	$2,150	$1.27	25d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $399,470 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,470 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,470 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,470 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,470 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,470 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,470 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,470 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,470 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,470 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,470 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,470 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,470 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,470 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,470 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $399,470 Active 231-char remark

    Show marketing remark (231 chars)

    Available for July 2026! The Springfield boasts a two-story foyer leading into an open Great Room and dining spaces. This four bedroom home includes a Covered Patio and stainless steel appliances, as well as granite in the kitchen.

17. 2026-04-14
    listed $399,470 New 353-char remark

    Show marketing remark (353 chars)

    Available for July 2026! Step into the Springfield, a floor plan in Boerne, TX, designed for connected living. The open kitchen in these modern two-story homes flows seamlessly for hosting, while the covered patio invites outdoor gatherings. Upstairs, spacious living areas offer room to grow-all in an affordable home built for comfort and convenience.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,183
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,377
• − Property taxes: −$5,992
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,655
• − Management: −$2,655
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$11,621
• Taxable loss: −$15,313
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,438/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boerne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810710
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $85,478
• Composite: 54.47/100
• National rank: #1350
• State rank: #42 of 826 in TX

Livability — Boerne

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #87
• US rank: #3046

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kendall County · 44,560 people
• City population: 44,560
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,560
• Household income: $116,156
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Kendall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,273 people
• By 2030: 64,578 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 81,624 · +45.1%
• By 2050: 99,180 · +76.2%
• By 2075: 144,012 · +155.9%
• By 2100: 177,185 · +214.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Kendall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.3pp no change · 2008: -56.0pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.2 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+64.5 2008: R+56.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.83%
• Current HPI: 273.2929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.99%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $399,470 Zillow
• 2026-04-14 Listed $399,470 LERA