Kitson Plan · New Fairview, TX 76078

$276,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 592 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Open space
• Trails
• Single-family homes

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES
• SWIMMING POOL
• TRAILS
• GREENBELTS
• OPEN SPACE
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOL DISTRICT

🏗️ New construction. The $276,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $266,374.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-239 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (16.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (26.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 592 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,708 (26.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 592 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $266,374
• List price: $276,999
• Delta: 3.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11402 Marcellus Way	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,411 (+1%)	7mo	$251,099	$178	92
11811 Mancos Trl	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	6mo	$256,099	$174	86
11850 Gabbro Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+3%)	3mo	$249,000	$172	86
11716 Mancos Trl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+5%)	7mo	$254,024	$172	83
11551 Antrim Pl	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	6mo	$266,949	$190	81
11531 Antrim Pl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	7mo	$242,149	$173	80
11715 Mancos Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	6mo	$241,399	$191	77
11742 Gammon Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	1mo	$249,999	$197	72
12629 Forest Lawn Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-2%)	6mo	$262,000	$190	66
12242 Big Rock Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,355 (-3%)	6mo	$255,000	$188	61
12418 Worthington Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,599 (+14%)	5mo	$265,000	$166	48
12826 Carpenter Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+10%)	3mo	$272,500	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $129,854
• Equity at exit: $239,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.29×
• Total profit: $394,452
• Equity at exit: $517,507

Cash invested: $74,585 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,397
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$333 /mo · $3,996/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,330

Max offer price $231,724

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,594
• Closing costs: $7,991
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11828 Mancos Trl Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,809	$1.23	43d	1	0.06mi
11846 Arkoma Dr Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,900	$1.50	12d	1	0.11mi
12408 Sunland Ave Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,875	$1.20	43d	1	0.61mi
12808 Kingsgate Dr Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1397	$2,000	$1.43	18d	1	0.68mi
12630 Carpenter Ln Rhome, TX	3.0	2.0	1557	$1,879	$1.21	24d	1	0.72mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	3d	1	0.80mi
16617 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$2,095	$1.35	43d	1	0.88mi
16612 Portage St Justin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,000	$1.35	43d	1	0.97mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	11d	1	1.09mi
1017 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,250	$1.30	3d	1	1.15mi
16009 Wanderer Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,100	$1.47	19d	1	1.15mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	43d	1	1.17mi
1049 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,195	$1.28	18d	1	1.20mi
16029 Pemberly Way Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,095	$1.22	12d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,999 Active 592 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,999 Active 591 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,999 Active 590 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,999 Active 589 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,999 Active 587 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,999 Active 583 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,999 Active 582 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,999 Active 581 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $276,999 Active 578 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,999 Active 577 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,999 Active 576 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,999 Active 575 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,999 Active 574 DOM
14. 2025-02-08
    status Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

15. 2025-02-07
    historical 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2024-11-02
    listed $276,999 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,921
• − Property taxes: −$3,996
• − Insurance: −$1,332
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$7,749
• Taxable loss: −$7,565
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-08 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-07 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-11-02 Listed $276,999 Zillow