251 Patterson Rd Unit H29 · Haines City, FL 33844

$174,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 269 Days on market

Built 2010 3,001 sqft lot $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE & BUYER INCENTIVE! Now offered at $174,000, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in a gated 55+ community comes with a $5,000 seller credit toward buyer closing costs with an acceptable offer. A fantastic opportunity for buyers seeking value, comfort, and land ownership — NO LOT RENT. Enjoy a warm and inviting open layout, a modern kitchen with generous storage, and all appliances included (washer and dryer, too). A small backyard shed provides extra storage, and the low-maintenance lot makes living easy. West View Ridge offers outstanding amenities including a solar-heated pool, pickleball, mini golf, bocce ball, shuffleboard, and an active clubhouse. Conveniently loc

Key facts

• Gated community
• Open floor plan
• Near major highways

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• LAND OWNED
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF CABINET SPACE
• NEAR MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided to enter gated community
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly fee approximately $80.83 (annual $970); Association fee required; Association amenities: clubhouse, maintenance, pool, recreational facilities, tennis courts, pickleball courts, racquetball, shuffleboard, sauna, gated, fence restrictions; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, dog park, fitness center, park, pool, sidewalks, wheelchair access; Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (cats and dogs OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Curb parking; Parking pad; Reserved parking
• Security: Gated community (association amenity); Security included in association fees
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Completed condition; One level; Facing southwest
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Water filtration system; Eat-in kitchen (open floorplan)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $133k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-14,212
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,674
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,526/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,614

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2972 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,900	$1.68	23d	1	0.61mi
2896 Kokomo Loop Unit 1259817P Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$6,692	$5.98	19d	1	0.68mi
487 Eaglecrest Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,150	$1.52	23d	1	0.76mi
1246 Westwinds Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1118	$1,905	$1.70	10d	1	0.84mi
730 Sierra Cir Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1218	$1,845	$1.51	23d	1	0.87mi
2474 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.90mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	23d	1	0.92mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	14d	1	0.92mi
106 Reineke Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,495	$1.11	3d	1	1.10mi
2057 Barroso ST Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	1465	$2,100	$1.43	23d	1	1.10mi
202 Highland Meadows Pl Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1252	$2,000	$1.60	14d	1	1.13mi
6004 Hemingway Cir #6004 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,150	$1.87	23d	1	1.18mi
6003 Hemingway Cir #6003 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,550	$1.35	23d	1	1.19mi
8009 Hemingway Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,399	$1.21	23d	1	1.20mi
6016 Hemingway Cir Unit 6016 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,500	$1.30	23d	1	1.20mi
8013 Hemingway Cir #8013 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,600	$1.39	23d	1	1.20mi
425 Hammerstone Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,796	$1.24	14d	1	1.21mi
1140 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,200	$1.95	23d	1	1.25mi
1052 Windsor Rd Davenport, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,799	$1.89	11d	14	1.31mi
1125 Avenue L Unit L Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,300	$1.54	23d	1	1.31mi
2109 N 13th St Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	772	$1,300	$1.68	23d	1	1.33mi
220 Champions Way Davenport, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1107	$1,997	$1.80	2d	7	1.34mi
1205 Avenue I Unit I Haines City, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,340	$1.60	14d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 269 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 268 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 267 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 266 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 264 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,000 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 260 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 259 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 258 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,000 Active 255 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 253 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 252 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 251 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $174,000
15. 2026-05-11
    price $174,900
16. 2026-04-16
    price $169,900
17. 2026-03-01
    status Active
18. 2026-03-01
    price $170,000
19. 2026-02-28
    historical
20. 2026-02-12
    price $173,390
21. 2026-01-28
    price $174,000
22. 2026-01-09
    price $174,900
23. 2025-12-30
    price $179,000
24. 2025-12-20
    price $179,995
25. 2025-12-01
    price $180,000
26. 2025-11-17
    price $189,990
27. 2025-11-16
    price $190,000
28. 2025-10-16
    price $200,000
29. 2025-09-21
    listed $210,000 Active
30. 2025-03-05
    historical
31. 2025-01-29
    price $215,000
32. 2024-11-05
    price $230,000
33. 2024-09-05
    listed $250,000 Active
34. 2024-08-02
    historical
35. 2024-05-17
    price $190,000
36. 2024-04-10
    price $200,000
37. 2024-02-03
    price $210,000
38. 2024-01-24
    listed $220,000 Active
39. 2021-09-15
    soldstatus $133,000
40. 2021-09-10
    soldstatus $133,000 Closed
41. 2021-08-07
    status Pending
42. 2021-07-18
    listed $137,900 Active
43. 2005-11-18
    soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,526 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,542
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,526
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147
• After-tax cash flow: $3,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+397.1% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $169,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $173,390 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $174,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $179,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $179,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $180,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $189,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-21 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-05 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $230,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-05 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-02 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-17 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-24 Listed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 2021-09-10 Sold (MLS) $133,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-18 Listed $137,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,526 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.