10555 Willow Creek Rd · Evansville, IN 47630

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1995 9,148 sqft lot $197/sqft · at area comps Est $261k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom brick ranch in Willow Brook Estates! The living room provides vaulted ceiling and a gas log fireplace. The floor plan flows into the breakfast nook and kitchen area. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and plenty of cabinet space! Off the kitchen is the laundry room. Master suite includes a spacious walk-in closet. There are two additional bedrooms and a full bath. The privacy fenced backyard features an above ground pool, utility shed, and screened in porch!

Key facts

• Screened in porch
• Utility shed
• Gas log fireplace

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• GAS LOG FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• UTILITY SHED
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned R1 Single - Household Residential
• HOA & community: Located in Willow Brook Estates

Exterior

• Parking: Attached aggregate driveway; 2-car attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family, site-built home; One story
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Shingle roof; Built as site-built construction
• Exterior features: Level lot; Outbuilding on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: Laundry located on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; HVAC and added insulation for energy efficiency
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($218/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.6% in Evansville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#416 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Warrick County School Corporation (suburban): math 54% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #24 of 301 in IN (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Elementary School (math 70% / reading 63%, grade B+, #65 of 994 statewide, top 7%, 629 students, 32% FRL); Castle South Middle School (math 43% / reading 57%, grade C, #48 of 330 statewide, top 15%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Castle High School (math 56% / reading 80%, grade B, #22 of 369 statewide, top 6%, 1,961 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.7%/yr); 395 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 249 units permitted in Warrick County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warrick County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,779 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,527
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -2.12%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10555 Willow Creek Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+7%)	1mo	$245,000	$177	88
10455 Cricklewood Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,339 (+3%)	12mo	$227,000	$170	74
5988 Willow Brook Ct	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+11%)	9mo	$266,000	$186	72
10788 Spry Rd	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,249 (-4%)	11mo	$249,900	$200	70
10877 Pollack Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,204 (-7%)	0mo	$115,000	$96	69
5902 Lisa Ln	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,356 (+5%)	2mo	$224,900	$166	63
9888 Monte Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+5%)	1mo	$296,000	$217	61
9998 Monte Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+5%)	2mo	$298,000	$219	61
9845 Monte Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,361 (+5%)	0mo	$297,000	$218	58
5815 River Walk Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,341 (+4%)	12mo	$213,900	$160	57
6100 Grand River Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,444 (+12%)	9mo	$226,500	$157	50
9860 Pollack Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,406 (+9%)	4mo	$270,000	$192	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-29,756
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $22,991
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 47630

• Rents YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 395
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,988 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,304/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $90	+0% $18	+5% $-54	+10% $-126
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-60	+0% $18	+5% $97	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $83	base $18	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6166 River Bluff Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,500	$1.95	45d	1	0.37mi
5879 Riverwalk Cir Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,600	$1.42	23d	1	0.59mi
9895 Cove Point Ct Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	0.65mi
4920 Penrose Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,900	$1.52	45d	1	1.03mi
10686 Fall Creek Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,950	$1.36	15d	1	1.07mi
4799 Imperial Dr Newburgh, IN	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,975	$1.44	45d	1	1.13mi
7501 E Powell Ave Evansville, IN	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 873-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $255,000 Active 873-char remark
3. 2018-07-18
   soldstatus $155,000 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Three bedroom brick ranch in Willow Brook Estates! The living room provides vaulted ceiling and a gas log fireplace. The floor plan flows into the breakfast nook and kitchen area. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and plenty of cabinet space! Off the kitchen is the laundry room. Master suite includes a spacious walk-in closet. There are two additional bedrooms and a full bath. The privacy fenced backyard features an above ground pool, utility shed, and screened in porch!

4. 2018-06-09
   listed $155,000 478-char remark

   Show marketing remark (478 chars)

   Three bedroom brick ranch in Willow Brook Estates! The living room provides vaulted ceiling and a gas log fireplace. The floor plan flows into the breakfast nook and kitchen area. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and plenty of cabinet space! Off the kitchen is the laundry room. Master suite includes a spacious walk-in closet. There are two additional bedrooms and a full bath. The privacy fenced backyard features an above ground pool, utility shed, and screened in porch!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,736 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$432/yr (+$36/mo · 33.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,853
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$1,304
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$4,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,019
• After-tax cash flow: $1,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warrick County School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1812390
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,801
• Composite: 49.38/100
• National rank: #2014
• State rank: #24 of 301 in IN

Livability — Evansville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #15047

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warrick County · 39,818 people
• City population: 146,793
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• Population (ZIP): 39,818
• Household income: $94,162
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 770.0

Population outlook (Warrick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,569 people
• By 2030: 68,404 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 71,131 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 72,743 · +9.3%
• By 2075: 76,088 · +14.3%
• By 2100: 72,261 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warrick

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.2) · D 34.1% · R 64.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -30.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.2 2020: R+27.8 2016: R+33.9 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.44%
• Current HPI: 185.7643
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.69%
• Metro: Evansville, IN-KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+58.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $245,000 IRMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $255,000 IRMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $155,000 IRMLS
• 2018-06-09 Listed $155,000 IRMLS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,304 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.