920 E 153rd St · Phoenix, IL 60426

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1996 3,125 sqft lot Est $149k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Key facts

• Adt security
• Patio
• New garage door

Tags

• NEW GARAGE DOOR
• ADT SECURITY
• PATIO
• FIREPLACE
• LOTS OF STORAGE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number 29162040470000
• HOA & community: No master association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with two garage spaces; Concrete driveway; Garage door opener
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One story listed (property type indicates 1 Story); Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978
• Construction: Brick construction; Shake roof
• Exterior features: Standard Chicago lot (25 x 125)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the main level (21 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Master bedroom on the second floor (12 x 15); Second bedroom on the second floor (12 x 14); Third bedroom on the second floor (12 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet in living room, family room and bedrooms; Combination flooring in laundry; Other flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating with forced air and baseboard; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Unfinished partial basement; Electric fireplace with accessories in the family room; Ceiling fans; Sump pump; Cable TV hookup; Security system
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room (8 x 12)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#230 in IL, #4,248 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $118k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.80%
• DSCR: 1.93
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
931 Miller Pl	0.04mi	3/1.5	1,042 (-6%)	1mo	$140,000	$134	87
523 E 149th St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,143 (+3%)	2mo	$80,000	$70	69
15137 7th Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-10%)	8mo	$78,000	$78	64
15536 State St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,212 (+9%)	4mo	$140,000	$116	60
15316 4th Ave	0.31mi	3/1.0	964 (-13%)	2mo	$35,000	$36	60
15533 Vincennes Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,020 (-8%)	6mo	$85,000	$83	58
15444 State St	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,254 (+13%)	2mo	$207,000	$165	52
14825 Perry Ave	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (-9%)	1mo	$200,000	$197	49
15750 Woodlawn West Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,210 (+9%)	6mo	$137,000	$113	46
64 E 158th Pl	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,250 (+12%)	3mo	$185,000	$148	44
14727 Riverside Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	3mo	$212,000	$177	43
14811 Perry Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	975 (-12%)	5mo	$160,000	$164	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.05×
• Total profit: $140,908
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.12×
• Total profit: $374,913
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60426

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,457 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $801

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1277	$2,320	$1.82	25d	1	0.96mi
15238 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 2W Dolton, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	11d	1	1.00mi
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	25d	1	1.12mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	8d	1	1.15mi
15509 Park Ln South Holland, IL	4.0	1.5	1200	$3,400	$2.83	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,359
• − Management: −$2,359
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $7,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,782
• After-tax cash flow: $7,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #4248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, IL
• City population: 23,066
• Population (ZIP): 23,066

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% White 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Current HPI: 313.7895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+63.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $165,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-05-09 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-25 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-23 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2023): $8,856 · +345.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.