704 Hubbard Ave · Aquebogue, NY 11901

$1,975,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,886 sqft · SingleFamily · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 1.97 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a picturesque 2-acre parcel in Aquebogue, this exceptional to-be-built residence offers the opportunity to own a beautifully crafted new construction home. Located adjacent to Overlook Drive and surrounded by the natural beauty of the North Fork, the property features an impressive approach and expansive grounds that provide a sense of privacy and space. The thoughtfully designed floor plan encompasses approximately 2,886 square feet with 4 bedrooms(first floor primary), 4.5 bathrooms, a full basement, and a 3-car garage. Open-concept living spaces, 9-foot ceilings on both levels, hardwood flooring, a custom kitchen, and quality craftsmanship throughout create a home that is both el

Key facts

• Custom kitchen
• Full basement
• 2 acre parcel

Tags

• 2 ACRE PARCEL
• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• EXPANSIVE GROUNDS
• FULL BASEMENT
• CUSTOM KITCHEN
• PREMIUM MATERIALS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 3-car garage
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area based on plans
• Construction: HardiPlank construction
• Exterior features: HardiPlank siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom; Quartz/Quartzite counters; Unfinished attic; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.98M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($82k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($26k rent vs $1.98M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roanoke Avenue School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,729 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 408 students, 46% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $14k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $59k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $553k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $1,975,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.81%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $115,036
• Equity at exit: $294,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $661,480
• Equity at exit: $170,762

Cash invested: $553,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $25,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,469 /mo · $29,625/yr
• Insurance: −$823
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,442
• Net cashflow: $6,825

Break-even live

Break-even rent $17,277

Max offer price $1,975,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $493,750
• Closing costs: $59,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40 Overlook DR Aquebogue, NY	4.0	4.5	3800	$30,000	$7.89	44d	1	0.82mi
123 Broad Ave Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2367	$20,000	$8.45	19d	1	0.84mi
807 Union Ave Riverhead, NY	4.0	2.5	2552	$9,000	$3.53	44d	1	0.95mi
599 Peconic Bay Blvd Jamesport, NY	3.0	4.0	3000	$29,000	$9.67	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,975,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,975,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,975,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,975,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,975,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $1,975,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $310,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$110,631
• − Property taxes: −$29,625
• − Insurance: −$9,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$24,879
• − Management: −$24,879
• − Depreciation: −$57,455
• Taxable income: $53,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,876
• After-tax cash flow: $69,023/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This beautifully crafted new construction home on a picturesque 2-acre parcel in Aquebogue offers an exceptional opportunity for both resale and rental. The property is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizes the spaces and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $1,975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid