3837 E State Hwy 20 Unit 22-23 · Nice, CA 95464

$40,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 979 Days on market

Built 1994 ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Huge reduction! Reduced-Want a home close to the Lake with Beach rights! Really nice and Newer manufactured home with 3 bedroom, 2 baths, laundry room, front deck and minimal yard work. There's a dock on the lake to use. Close to Casino, restaurants, and shops. Perfect summer or weekend home with many furnishings.

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 978 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required for tenancy; Pet policy: contact manager
• Financial info: Land lease approximately $900 monthly (park source); Rent includes trash, water and sewer
• HOA & community: Park name: Shade and Shores; Community features include golf course, fishing, lake access, rural setting, proximity to BLM/National Forest; Land lease in place (park-managed)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Parking available
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: District/public water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Electricity connected (220V in kitchen; 220V in laundry); Cable available; Natural gas not available
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Faces east; Turnkey condition; Mobile home dimensions approximately 24' x 48'; Model 09248; Total of 1 story
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Attached deck/patio; Has view; Lake access and lake on/near lot (lake rights; lot is across the road from lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Propane range / gas range; Range/stove hood; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main/living level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub; Exhaust fans; Low-flow shower and toilet fixtures
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Propane heating available; Wall/window cooling; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Double door entry; Living room deck attached; Formica counters; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors; One-level layout; All bedrooms on main level
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; 220V in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $986 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.9% vs local median 4.6% in Nice — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#652 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Upper Lake Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #433 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 63 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 979 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (51%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $35,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 979 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.64%
• DSCR: 5.70
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,136
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3748 Manzanita Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-4%)	10mo	$251,000	$228	77
4024 E State Hwy 20	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,180 (+2%)	15mo	$125,000	$106	65
3570 Beach St	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (+15%)	16mo	$175,000	$133	43
3300 Springe St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-12%)	11mo	$220,000	$218	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $56,341
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.61×
• Total profit: $130,021
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95464

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 63
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $986

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,014	-5% $1,000	+0% $986	+5% $972	+10% $958
Rent	-10% $860	-5% $923	+0% $986	+5% $1,049	+10% $1,112
Rate	-1.0pp $1,006	-0.5pp $996	base $986	+0.5pp $976	+1.0pp $965

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6627 Blue Heron Dr Unit A Upper Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,598	$1.78	45d	1	1.40mi
6687 Blue Heron Dr Unit 6607 D Upper Lake, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,598	$1.78	45d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $40,000 Active 979 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $40,000 Active 978 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $40,000 Active 977 DOM
4. 2025-06-04
   price $40,000
5. 2025-06-04
   status Active
6. 2025-06-02
   historical
7. 2025-02-02
   status Active
8. 2025-01-27
   historical Active Under Contract
9. 2025-01-08
   status Active
10. 2025-01-01
    historical
11. 2024-06-24
    price $50,000
12. 2024-05-01
    status Active
13. 2024-04-15
    historical Active Under Contract
14. 2024-03-01
    price $65,000
15. 2023-12-05
    price $79,000
16. 2023-09-17
    listed $82,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $11,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,857
• After-tax cash flow: $8,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Upper Lake Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601442
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $35,872
• Composite: 20.24/100
• National rank: #8624
• State rank: #433 of 517 in CA

Livability — Nice

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #652
• US rank: #20328

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nice, CA
• City population: 2,417
• Population (ZIP): 2,417

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 29% Native American 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.76%
• Current HPI: 177.0701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-51.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $40,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-04 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-02 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-01-27 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-01-08 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2025-01-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-06-24 Price Changed $50,000 CRMLS
• 2024-05-01 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2024-04-15 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2023-12-05 Price Changed $79,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-17 Listed $82,000 CRMLS