638 Elba Ave · Prichard, AL 36612

$7,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,872 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.96 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LAND VALUE ONLY - HOUSE HAS NO VALUE - SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS- ESTATE PROPERTY, WILL REQUIRE PROBATE COURT APPROVAL - CASH PURCHASE ONLY DO NOT ENTER HOUSE OR WALK ON PROPERTY -

Key facts

• 0.96 acre lot
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $943 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $8k).
• Cap rate 157.2% vs local median 11.4% in Prichard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#472 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $620 of equity ($52 loan paydown + $568 appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $7,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 16.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 157.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 538.81%
• DSCR: 24.97
• GRM: 0.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $69,264
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 S Gould Ave	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,720 (-8%)	0mo	$43,460	$25	66
125 Gould Ave S	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,852 (-1%)	21mo	$68,000	$37	66
405 N Wasson Ave	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,789 (-4%)	15mo	$100,000	$56	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 30.98×
• Total profit: $62,965
• Equity at exit: $5,485

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 66.77×
• Total profit: $138,111
• Equity at exit: $10,690

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36612

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 0.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,264 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $160/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$265
• Net cashflow: $943

Break-even live

Break-even rent $71

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 20%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-29
   status Pending 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   LAND VALUE ONLY - HOUSE HAS NO VALUE - SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS- ESTATE PROPERTY, WILL REQUIRE PROBATE COURT APPROVAL - CASH PURCHASE ONLY DO NOT ENTER HOUSE OR WALK ON PROPERTY -

2. 2025-12-29
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   LAND VALUE ONLY - HOUSE HAS NO VALUE - SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS- ESTATE PROPERTY, WILL REQUIRE PROBATE COURT APPROVAL - CASH PURCHASE ONLY DO NOT ENTER HOUSE OR WALK ON PROPERTY -

3. 2025-12-26
   listed $7,500 Active 178-char remark

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   LAND VALUE ONLY - HOUSE HAS NO VALUE - SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS- ESTATE PROPERTY, WILL REQUIRE PROBATE COURT APPROVAL - CASH PURCHASE ONLY DO NOT ENTER HOUSE OR WALK ON PROPERTY -

4. 2025-12-26
   listed $7,500 Active

   Show marketing remark (178 chars)

   LAND VALUE ONLY - HOUSE HAS NO VALUE - SOLD AS IS, WHERE IS- ESTATE PROPERTY, WILL REQUIRE PROBATE COURT APPROVAL - CASH PURCHASE ONLY DO NOT ENTER HOUSE OR WALK ON PROPERTY -

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $160 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,170
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$160
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,214
• − Management: −$1,214
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $11,907
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,858
• After-tax cash flow: $8,457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Prichard

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #472
• US rank: #24080

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prichard, AL
• City population: 13,402
• Population (ZIP): 3,558

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 93% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.58%
• Current HPI: 130.8445
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-29 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-29 Pending — BCAR
• 2025-12-26 Listed $7,500 GCMLS AL
• 2025-12-26 Listed $7,500 BCAR

Property tax history

-12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $160 · -24.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.