446 Pineland Avenue Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$119,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Excellent condition $67/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new home available! Call us today to make this your new home! This home features 4-bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open floor plan. All kitchen appliances are included, kitchen island, and a walk-in pantry. Utility room with washer and dryer hook-ups. Spacious bedrooms, the primary bedroom features en-suite bathroom with a large walk-in shower and dual vanities. Come see this home today!

Key facts

• Listed 140 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.0% in Uhland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,595 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.40%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,000
• List price: $119,995
• Delta: -60.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2770 Cotton Gin Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,984 (+10%)	15mo	$275,000	$139	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,454
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $40,497
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $119,995

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,999
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,414	$0.97	12d	1	0.03mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	43d	1	0.44mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	23d	1	0.44mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	23d	1	0.46mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	16d	1	0.54mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	1d	1	1.00mi
456 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	5.0	2.5	1892	$2,300	$1.22	23d	1	1.22mi
176 Gerasa Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$2,000	$0.97	12d	1	1.23mi
321 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$1,900	$0.77	4d	1	1.30mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	43d	1	1.34mi
259 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,895	$1.22	23d	1	1.36mi
127 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	17d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,995 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,995 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,995 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,995 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,995 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,995 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,995 Active 130 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,995 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,995 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,995 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,995 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,995 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,995 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-01-29
    listed $119,995 Active 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    Brand new home available! Call us today to make this your new home! This home features 4-bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an open floor plan. All kitchen appliances are included, kitchen island, and a walk-in pantry. Utility room with washer and dryer hook-ups. Spacious bedrooms, the primary bedroom features en-suite bathroom with a large walk-in shower and dual vanities. Come see this home today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,348
• After-tax cash flow: $5,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new manufactured home is move-in ready with excellent condition and no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious floor plan, modern finishes, and ample natural light, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve curb appeal and resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve curb appeal and resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $119,995 Zillow