16 Chandelle Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$184,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1942 5,663 sqft lot Est $220k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 16 Chandelle Rd, Baltimore, MD 21220 an exceptional value-add opportunity in the highly desirable Middle River market, priced well below renovated comparables and positioned to deliver immediate equity for the right buyer. This detached bungalow offers over 1,000 square feet of single-level living across a functional 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom layout — presenting a clean canvas ready to be transformed into exactly what today's buyers are paying top dollar for. Retaining its original character throughout, the home is ideally suited for a full personalized renovation, a strategic cosmetic update, or a long-term rental hold. Whether you're envisioning a modern open-concept kitchen

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• True backyard
• Detached bungalow

Tags

• DETACHED BUNGALOW
• USABLE FENCED LOT
• PRIVATE PARKING
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• TRUE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached side-entry garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Detached property; Shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Year built: Estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Detached structure
• Exterior features: Tidal water: No

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Hot water: Electric
• Interior features: Carpet flooring; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $365 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.2% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,284
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33 Honeycomb Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0	996 (-5%)	7mo	$260,000	$261	78
14 Gyro Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	7mo	$260,000	$258	72
53 Longeron Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,050 (+1%)	6mo	$260,000	$248	71
17 Propeller Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+7%)	2mo	$197,500	$176	67
1212 Fuselage Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-3%)	3mo	$157,000	$156	64
1201 Fuselage Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	972 (-7%)	2mo	$300,000	$309	62
10 Propeller Dr	0.38mi	3/1.0	944 (-10%)	9mo	$265,000	$281	59
35 Rockywood Ln	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-4%)	3mo	$40,000	$40	54
31 Right Wing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+4%)	5mo	$186,000	$171	53
1132 Stephen Dr	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,125 (+8%)	6mo	$161,000	$143	50
28 Right Wing Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+7%)	6mo	$175,000	$156	50
320 Harding Ave	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+10%)	8mo	$242,500	$211	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,091
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,145
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,043 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,435/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $365

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $469	-5% $417	+0% $365	+5% $312	+10% $260
Rent	-10% $203	-5% $284	+0% $365	+5% $445	+10% $526
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $412	base $365	+0.5pp $317	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	3d	24	0.44mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	0.55mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	740	$1,510	$2.04	4d	9	0.56mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	0.70mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	0.71mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,900	$1.55	23d	1	0.75mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	3d	1	0.77mi
8908 Golden Tree Ln Essex, MD	4.0	1.5	1466	$3,000	$2.05	45d	1	0.78mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	0.81mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	0.83mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	0.83mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	45d	1	0.88mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	0.93mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	6d	1	0.97mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	45d	1	1.00mi
9901 Langs Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	950	$1,795	$1.89	45d	10	1.03mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	1.22mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	45d	1	1.25mi
9206 Oswald Way Rosedale, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,018	$2.33	3d	22	1.26mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	1.27mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	1.33mi
8 King Henry Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,895	$1.87	45d	1	1.35mi
5326 King Arthur Cir Rosedale, MD	3.0	1.5	1424	$2,300	$1.62	25d	1	1.45mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $184,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $184,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $184,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   listed $199,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,435 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,520
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$2,435
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable income: $1,501
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$360
• After-tax cash flow: $4,015/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,435 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.