9303 Kingsflower Cir · Houston, TX 77075

$180,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,507 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1984 3,070 sqft lot $119/sqft · 21% below area Est $229k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NO HOA! Move-in ready! Located in a desirable school zone and just 3 minutes from Beltway 8, this 2-story home is priced to sell quickly!

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• No hoa
• 3,070 sq ft lot

Tags

• NO HOA
• MOVE-IN READY
• DESIRABLE SCHOOL ZONE
• 3 MINUTES FROM BELTWAY 8

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($606/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $180k implies a 132% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,667
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -21.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9283 Kingsflower Cir	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,606 (+7%)	3mo	$179,999	$112	85
10918 Gulf Bridge Ct	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-0%)	2mo	$265,000	$177	81
9559 Carmalee St	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,591 (+6%)	2mo	$265,000	$167	75
9423 Garden Bridge St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+5%)	2mo	$240,000	$152	70
9715 Santa Monica Blvd	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+1%)	0mo	$240,000	$158	68
9922 Glenkirk Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+6%)	3mo	$270,000	$169	68
9527 Kingsvalley St	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,397 (-7%)	0mo	$245,000	$175	68
9706 Carmalee St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,383 (-8%)	2mo	$260,000	$188	59
10103 Kirkwren Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-13%)	2mo	$208,000	$158	53
10318 Sageberry Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-12%)	0mo	$259,900	$197	49
9331 Garfield Park Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,638 (+9%)	1mo	$272,000	$166	49
5 Ramey Cir	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,296 (-14%)	2mo	$225,000	$174	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-27,340
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-25,263
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77075

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$358 /mo · $4,302/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,744

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9402 Carmalee St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,850	$1.18	21d	1	0.16mi
9462 Fuqua St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	0.47mi
10010 Sagecanyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	44d	1	0.48mi
9122 Southbluff Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,000	$1.05	44d	1	0.54mi
9610 Foredale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,625	$0.89	3d	1	0.59mi
10418 Sagemeadow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1429	$1,950	$1.36	44d	1	0.74mi
10350 Stover St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,625	$1.17	44d	1	0.87mi
8911 Durham Manor Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1848	$2,201	$1.19	5d	1	0.95mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1618	$8,750	$5.41	22d	1	1.04mi
10606 Kirkwren Dr Unit 1029082P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1614	$15,665	$9.71	24d	1	1.04mi
11575 Pearland Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,948	$1.82	1d	22	1.13mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	814	$1,491	$1.83	20d	17	1.15mi
10819 Sagewind Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1514	$1,966	$1.30	5d	1	1.23mi
9943 Pearland Pkwy Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,839	$1.70	24d	1	1.27mi
9988 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,290	$1.50	3d	15	1.33mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 11613 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,847	$1.71	12d	1	1.41mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,812	$1.68	8d	1	1.41mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,836	$1.70	11d	1	1.42mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,812	$1.68	5d	1	1.48mi
11576 Pearland Pkwy Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1079	$1,804	$1.67	3d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on marketlisting id $180,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $180,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-03-13
    listed $180,000 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    NO HOA! Move-in ready! Located in a desirable school zone and just 3 minutes from Beltway 8, this 2-story home is priced to sell quickly!

14. 2026-03-13
    historical

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    NO HOA! Move-in ready! Located in a desirable school zone and just 3 minutes from Beltway 8, this 2-story home is priced to sell quickly!

15. 2026-02-21
    price $180,000
16. 2026-02-21
    price $18,000
17. 2026-01-15
    listed $210,000 Active
18. 2026-01-15
    historical
19. 2026-01-05
    price $210,000
20. 2025-10-03
    listed $220,000 Active
21. 2025-08-21
    historical $1,850
22. 2025-08-09
    price $1,850
23. 2025-08-09
    price $1,900
24. 2025-08-07
    price $1,850
25. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,900
26. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,900
27. 2025-06-19
    listed $1,900
28. 2024-09-15
    historical $1,900
29. 2024-08-25
    listed $1,900
30. 2024-07-24
    soldstatus
31. 2024-07-23
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2024-06-20
    status Pending
33. 2024-06-14
    price $189,000
34. 2024-06-02
    listed $199,000 Active
35. 1997-12-08
    soldstatus $77,672
36. 1997-12-01
    soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,302 · $358/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,302 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$4,302
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,626
• Household income: $69,191
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1573.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 34% Black 14% White 7% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 60% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.33%
• Current HPI: 260.3733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+192.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $180,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $18,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Price Changed $210,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Rental Removed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $1,850 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-15 Rental Removed $1,900 HARMLS
• 2024-08-25 Listed for Rent $1,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-23 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-06-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-02 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 1997-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $77,672 Public Records
• 1997-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,302 · +25.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.