19046 Digger Pine St · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$216,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1984 0.31 ac lot $186/sqft · 35% below area Est $331k · 35% under $306/mo HOA · 15% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Pine Mountain Lake — one of Groveland’s most sought-after gated communities, just moments from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. This HUD-owned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an incredible opportunity to create your perfect full-time residence or mountain getaway. Step inside and imagine the possibilities. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect gathering space for cool Sierra evenings. The functional floor plan provides comfortable bedrooms, two full baths, and great natural light throughout. An attached garage adds convenience, while possible solar helps with energy efficiency and long-term savings. Bring your vision and updates to transform this home into something truly special. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation retreat, or investment opportunity, this property is filled with potential. Living in Pine Mountain Lake means enjoying resort-style amenities including a private lake and marina, 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis courts, equestrian center, hiking trails, and more — all within a secure, gated community. Don’t miss the chance to invest in lifestyle, location, and opportunity in beautiful Groveland.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Clubhouse
• Private lake

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE LAKE
• MARINA
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Tenaya Elementary (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 179 students, 58% FRL); Don Pedro High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 50 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $102k; list at $216k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,182 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,942
• List price: $216,000
• Delta: -34.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12869 Mueller Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-1%)	22mo	$250,000	$217	57
13170 Jackson Ml	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,338 (+15%)	8mo	$315,000	$235	55
12856 Mueller	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+3%)	21mo	$320,000	$268	51
19276 Ferretti Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+12%)	23mo	$278,000	$214	49
19211 Ferretti Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-12%)	14mo	$335,000	$328	38
13254 Wells Fargo Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+14%)	23mo	$280,000	$211	37
19155 Ferretti	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,291 (+11%)	19mo	$380,000	$294	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-43,368
• Equity at exit: $32,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-47,923
• Equity at exit: $18,676

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,263/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,279

Max offer price $192,182

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-74	+0% $-135	+5% $-196	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-301	-5% $-218	+0% $-135	+5% $-52	+10% $32
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-80	base $-135	+0.5pp $-191	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	0.69mi
19220 Pleasantview Dr Groveland, CA	2.0	1.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	45d	1	0.83mi
19223 Salvador Ct Unit C Groveland, CA	2.0	1.5	1106	$1,800	$1.63	15d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $216,000 Pending 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $216,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $216,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $216,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $216,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   price $216,000 1255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

   Welcome to Pine Mountain Lake — one of Groveland’s most sought-after gated communities, just moments from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. This HUD-owned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an incredible opportunity to create your perfect full-time residence or mountain getaway. Step inside and imagine the possibilities. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect gathering space for cool Sierra evenings. The functional floor plan provides comfortable bedrooms, two full baths, and great natural light throughout. An attached garage adds convenience, while possible solar helps with energy efficiency and long-term savings. Bring your vision and updates to transform this home into something truly special. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation retreat, or investment opportunity, this property is filled with potential. Living in Pine Mountain Lake means enjoying resort-style amenities including a private lake and marina, 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis courts, equestrian center, hiking trails, and more — all within a secure, gated community. Don’t miss the chance to invest in lifestyle, location, and opportunity in beautiful Groveland.

7. 2026-04-07
   price $243,000 1255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

   Welcome to Pine Mountain Lake — one of Groveland’s most sought-after gated communities, just moments from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. This HUD-owned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an incredible opportunity to create your perfect full-time residence or mountain getaway. Step inside and imagine the possibilities. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect gathering space for cool Sierra evenings. The functional floor plan provides comfortable bedrooms, two full baths, and great natural light throughout. An attached garage adds convenience, while possible solar helps with energy efficiency and long-term savings. Bring your vision and updates to transform this home into something truly special. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation retreat, or investment opportunity, this property is filled with potential. Living in Pine Mountain Lake means enjoying resort-style amenities including a private lake and marina, 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis courts, equestrian center, hiking trails, and more — all within a secure, gated community. Don’t miss the chance to invest in lifestyle, location, and opportunity in beautiful Groveland.

8. 2026-02-20
   listed $270,000 Active 1255-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1255 chars)

   Welcome to Pine Mountain Lake — one of Groveland’s most sought-after gated communities, just moments from the entrance to Yosemite National Park. This HUD-owned 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers an incredible opportunity to create your perfect full-time residence or mountain getaway. Step inside and imagine the possibilities. The spacious living area features a cozy fireplace, creating the perfect gathering space for cool Sierra evenings. The functional floor plan provides comfortable bedrooms, two full baths, and great natural light throughout. An attached garage adds convenience, while possible solar helps with energy efficiency and long-term savings. Bring your vision and updates to transform this home into something truly special. Whether you're looking for a primary residence, vacation retreat, or investment opportunity, this property is filled with potential. Living in Pine Mountain Lake means enjoying resort-style amenities including a private lake and marina, 18-hole championship golf course, clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis courts, equestrian center, hiking trails, and more — all within a secure, gated community. Don’t miss the chance to invest in lifestyle, location, and opportunity in beautiful Groveland.

9. 2000-10-27
   soldstatus $102,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,263 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,263 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$3,263
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,024
• − Management: −$2,024
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$5,143
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,234
• After-tax cash flow: $-384/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+110.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $216,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $243,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-20 Listed $270,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2000-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $102,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,263 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.