628 Falls Ln · Lehigh Acres, FL 33974

$250,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,838 sqft · Condo public records · 86 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition $180/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0

Listing remarks

Brand new construction, YOU CAN OWN YOUR OWN BRAND NEW HOME WITH 1838 SQUARE FEET OF LIVING AREA, UPGRADES GALORE WITH AN EXTRA FAMILY ROOM WITH PRIVATE THIRD BATHROOM FOR THIS PRICE, NOT TO MENTION CITY WATER AND SEWER. THESE ARE INDIVIDUAL SINGLE FAMILY UNITS, BRAND NEW, NEVER LIVED IN, excellent Mirror Lakes location, private low traffic location on a quiet dead end street, large covered front porch, open great room floor plan VOLUME CEILINGS THROUGHOUT with COFFERED CEILINGS, ceramic tile floors throughout with five inch baseboards, island/breakfast bar in kitchen with real wood cabinets, soft close doors and drawers, QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS, tile backsplash, large walk in butler's pantry wi

Key facts

• City water and sewer
• Extra family room
• $180 HOA

Tags

• BRAND NEW CONSTRUCTION
• EXTRA FAMILY ROOM
• PRIVATE THIRD BATHROOM
• CITY WATER AND SEWER
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• OPEN GREAT ROOM FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $180; Association covers irrigation water, grounds maintenance, and reserve fund; Non-gated community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Driveway (paved); Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Irrigation supplied by well
• Home design: Single-story residence; Entry level 1; Faces west; Resale property; Attached property
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Open porch; Room suitable for pool; Sprinkler/irrigation system (automatic); Guest house attached; East exposure; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes screened porch/lanai (16 x 8) and a family room (24 x 12) as additional living spaces
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Impact glass windows; Breakfast bar; Tray ceilings; Coffered ceilings; Dual sinks; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Combined living/dining area; Pantry; Shower only (separate shower); Walk-in pantry; Walk-in closets; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $195k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Veterans Park Academy For The Arts (math 41% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,366 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 2,133 students, 36% FRL); Oak Hammock Middle School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade D-, #340 of 571 statewide, top 61%, 1,563 students, 56% FRL); Lehigh Senior High School (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #394 of 667 statewide, top 60%, 2,476 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.7%/yr); 2476 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $250k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $195,377 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.30%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $110,683
• Equity at exit: $225,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $331,109
• Equity at exit: $485,695

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33974

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Rents YoY: -4.7%
• Active inventory: 2476
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,715/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,411

Max offer price $195,377

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-168	-5% $-238	+0% $-309	+5% $-380	+10% $-451
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-389	+0% $-309	+5% $-229	+10% $-150
Rate	-1.0pp $-183	-0.5pp $-246	base $-309	+0.5pp $-374	+1.0pp $-440

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
546 Whispering Wind Bnd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1437	$1,950	$1.36	3d	1	0.35mi
567 Charwood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$1,900	$1.21	16d	1	0.41mi
684 Thomas Sherwin Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,695	$1.32	5d	1	0.44mi
598 Aston Lake Ct Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1703	$2,395	$1.41	23d	1	0.53mi
715 Bering Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1835	$1,895	$1.03	23d	1	0.56mi
719 Fullerton Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	21d	1	0.64mi
530 Kilgour Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2214	$1,795	$0.81	5d	1	0.65mi
668 Chemstrand St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2388	$2,000	$0.84	25d	1	0.67mi
515 Croydon Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	3.0	1253	$2,200	$1.76	5d	1	0.68mi
720 Chavers St Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,200	$1.42	25d	1	0.77mi
510 Caywood Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	0.78mi
708 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	23d	1	0.89mi
710 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	4d	1	0.90mi
710 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	23d	1	0.90mi
710 Godwid Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1758	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.90mi
541 Hawthorne Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,921	$1.18	5d	1	0.95mi
862 Charles Sise St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,664	$1.68	25d	1	0.99mi
758 Worth Ave Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,000	$1.47	17d	1	1.01mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,900	$1.31	5d	1	1.04mi
20190 Caroline Creek Pl Unit 250 Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	25d	1	1.04mi
771 Gaylord Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,000	$1.31	25d	1	1.06mi
760 Festival Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	1.06mi
908 Winters St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1639	$2,200	$1.34	12d	1	1.07mi
430 Bell Blvd Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	2526	$1,600	$0.63	25d	1	1.10mi
12321 Dakota Ridge Pl Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,850	$1.28	16d	1	1.11mi
814 Crystal Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1865	$1,815	$0.97	25d	1	1.12mi
744 Oakridge Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,000	$1.34	21d	1	1.12mi
459 Lockport Ave S Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,000	$1.21	25d	1	1.13mi
652 Keller St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,861	$1.31	23d	1	1.15mi
825 Carbon St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,300	$1.45	25d	1	1.26mi
727 Cane St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1582	$2,000	$1.26	25d	1	1.33mi
954 Pilgrim St E Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,625	$1.30	3d	1	1.35mi
20012 Petrucka Cir N Unit D Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$1,750	$1.15	25d	1	1.36mi
20055 Lake Vista Cir N Lehigh Acres, FL	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,700	$1.18	25d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: watersewer
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $250,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-03-27
    listed $250,000 Active
14. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-26
    historical
16. 2026-01-03
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2026-01-03
    historical
18. 2025-11-17
    listed $275,000 Active
19. 2025-11-17
    historical
20. 2025-07-16
    listed $295,000 Active
21. 2025-07-16
    historical
22. 2025-06-12
    listed $299,900 Active
23. 2025-06-12
    historical
24. 2025-04-07
    listed $599,900 Active
25. 2025-04-07
    historical
26. 2025-01-06
    listed $349,900 Active
27. 2025-01-06
    historical
28. 2024-05-03
    listed $375,000 Active
29. 2024-05-03
    historical
30. 2023-12-28
    listed $450,000 Active
31. 2021-02-04
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,715 · $310/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,715
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,939
• − Management: −$1,939
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$8,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This property is a brand new construction with excellent condition and a great location. It is move-in ready and has a high resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property.
• Both Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value of the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhancing the landscaping and curb appeal can increase both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑
• Both Painting the exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale and rental value of the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lehigh Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20055

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lehigh Acres, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,927
• Household income: $72,192
• Rent vs Own: 27.3% rent · 72.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 434.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Two or more races 31% White 26% Black 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 20% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 7% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 43% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.53%
• Current HPI: 303.3399
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $250,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-11-17 Listed $275,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-07-16 Listed $295,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $299,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listed $599,900 FORTMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-01-06 Listed $349,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-05-03 Listed $375,000 FORTMLS
• 2023-12-28 Listed $450,000 FORTMLS
• 2021-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+254.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,715 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.