2654 North Ave · Niagara Falls, NY 14305

$134,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1952 5,214 sqft lot Est $156k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

East of Hyde park , Cape Cod full front porch, 4 bedrooms, rear addition with Family Room and Dining Room combination, wood stove, Furnace 3 months old, Roof approx. .3 years old , concrete Drive Way , detached 2 Car garage with remote opener.

Key facts

• Wood stove
• Furnace 3 months old
• 5,214 sq ft lot

Tags

• CAPE COD FULL FRONT PORCH
• REAR ADDITION WITH FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBINATION
• WOOD STOVE
• FURNACE 3 MONTHS OLD
• ROOF APPROX 3 YEARS OLD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: One story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt architectural shingle roof; Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Open porch; Pet fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; First-floor bedroom (Bedroom 1, approx. 12 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (Bedroom 2); Second-floor bedroom (Bedroom 3, approx. 16 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (Bedroom 4, approx. 14 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Heating noted as 'See Remarks'
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $134k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $344 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $134k).
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.7% in Niagara Falls — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#956 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Niagara Falls City School District (urban): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #578 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $930 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $134,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2915 Porter Rd	0.21mi	4/1.5	1,484 (-5%)	1mo	$171,720	$116	80
3210 Niagara Ave	0.26mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,521 (-2%)	7mo	$214,500	$141	71
1857 Ontario Ave	0.46mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,546 (-1%)	1mo	$85,000	$55	69
2233 South Ave	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,553 (-0%)	3mo	$155,000	$100	67
2415 Linwood Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,584 (+2%)	6mo	$145,000	$92	63
2456 South Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$120,000	$87	62
2434 Weston Ave	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (-10%)	4mo	$170,000	$121	59
1868 Niagara Ave	0.44mi	4/1.0	1,360 (-13%)	5mo	$68,000	$50	54
2902 Linwood Ave	0.42mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,376 (-12%)	4mo	$180,000	$131	52
2722 Willow Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,412 (-10%)	8mo	$190,000	$135	49
2962 Weston Ave	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,760 (+13%)	4mo	$155,000	$88	47
1849 Niagara Ave	0.48mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,336 (-14%)	5mo	$65,000	$49	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $166
• Equity at exit: $20,054

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $28,622
• Equity at exit: $11,629

Cash invested: $37,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14305

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,706 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$705
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,913/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,271

Max offer price $134,500

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,625
• Closing costs: $4,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2020 Forest Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,500	$0.94	16d	1	0.91mi
1001 17th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	1.01mi
784 15th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.5	1380	$1,350	$0.98	3d	1	1.14mi
3025 Macklem Ave Niagara Falls, NY	4.0	1.5	1750	$2,200	$1.26	43d	1	1.33mi
420 25th St Niagara Falls, NY	3.0	1.0	1101	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.45mi
3225 Belden Pl Niagara Falls, NY	5.0	1.5	1344	$1,750	$1.30	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $134,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,913 · $243/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,534
• − Property taxes: −$2,913
• − Insurance: −$672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,638
• − Management: −$1,638
• − Depreciation: −$3,913
• Taxable income: $2,165
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$520
• After-tax cash flow: $3,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Niagara Falls City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620820
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $32,488
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7655
• State rank: #578 of 590 in NY

Livability — Niagara Falls

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #956
• US rank: #18749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Niagara Falls, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 62,983
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 16,696
• Household income: $51,004
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1095.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 24% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.08%
• Current HPI: 350.8741
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $134,500 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,913 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.