16984 Kempwood · Conroe, TX 77316

$184,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,188 sqft · Land · 118 Days on market

Built 2025 2,247 sqft lot $156/sqft · 6% above area Est $174k · 6% over $32/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

Key facts

• 2,247 sq ft lot
• Built 2025
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,259 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.00%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,745
• List price: $184,900
• Delta: 6.42%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,615
• Equity at exit: $27,569

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-17,351
• Equity at exit: $15,987

Cash invested: $51,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,690 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $489/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,417

Max offer price $184,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $320	-5% $268	+0% $216	+5% $163	+10% $111
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $149	+0% $216	+5% $282	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $263	base $216	+0.5pp $168	+1.0pp $119

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,225
• Closing costs: $5,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16967 W Ivanhoe Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,350	$1.33	13d	1	0.06mi
16928 Kempwood Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	44d	1	0.08mi
16915 Balmoral Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.28mi
1050 S Pine Lake Rd Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,845	$1.75	25d	1	0.54mi
15 April Vlg Montgomery, TX	2.0	2.0	1218	$1,650	$1.35	44d	1	0.92mi
298 Capetown Way Unit A Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	44d	1	1.05mi
124 April Point Dr S #124 Montgomery, TX	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,490	$1.15	21d	1	1.33mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $184,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $184,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $184,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    price $184,900 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

16. 2026-02-26
    price $188,900 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

17. 2026-02-20
    status Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

18. 2026-02-04
    status Pending 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

19. 2026-02-04
    listed $189,900 Active 628-char remark

    Show marketing remark (628 chars)

    Do Not Miss The Reba, a stunning, modern 2-story, 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home, designed to turn heads. Inside, the open-concept layout offers effortless flow between the living area, dining space, and a sleek, thoughtfully designed kitchen. You’ll find 3 bedrooms including a light-filled primary suite with a luxurious ensuite and walk-in closet. Every space is designed with purpose, personality, and a sense of modern-contemporary flair. Located in Lake Conroe Village in the Heart of Montgomery, this is your chance to own an ICONIQ home that stands out from the rest! Don´t wait this one won´t last long!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $489 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,384 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,895/yr (+$241/mo · 592.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,357
• − Property taxes: −$489
• − Insurance: −$924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,622
• − Management: −$1,622
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$5,379
• Taxable loss: −$500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $184,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $188,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $189,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+22.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $489 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.