Plan 1864 Plan · Houston, TX 77044

$258,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily · 861 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 861 days

🏗️ New construction. The $258,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $321,190.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 861 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,915 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 861 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.19%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,190
• List price: $258,995
• Delta: -19.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15334 Rosehill Summit Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,883 (+1%)	1mo	$267,900	$142	81
15606 Clearwater Bend Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-7%)	0mo	$267,500	$155	77
12934 Palm Leaf Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,842 (-1%)	2mo	$245,000	$133	63
15614 Harmony Terrace Ct	0.57mi	3/2.5	1,750 (-6%)	1mo	$259,000	$148	62
12507 Seybold Cove Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,864 (0%)	10mo	$289,677	$155	60
12571 New Castle Park Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,673 (-10%)	0mo	$280,000	$167	59
12559 New Castle Park Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-9%)	2mo	$280,000	$166	58
12914 Pecan Shores Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,679 (-10%)	3mo	$235,000	$140	49
12503 Seybold Cove Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,693 (-9%)	7mo	$259,995	$154	49
12803 Mainstay Place Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-6%)	7mo	$250,000	$142	48
15030 Strongbow Ln	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,988 (+7%)	13mo	$336,578	$169	47
12443 Seybold Cove Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,124 (+14%)	10mo	$310,775	$146	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-57,488
• Equity at exit: $68,596

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-77,391
• Equity at exit: $64,667

Cash invested: $89,933 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,412 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,684
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$401 /mo · $4,818/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,810

Max offer price $275,763

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-92	-5% $-203	+0% $-314	+5% $-425	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-409	+0% $-314	+5% $-219	+10% $-123
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-232	base $-314	+0.5pp $-397	+1.0pp $-482

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,298
• Closing costs: $9,636
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	3d	1	0.89mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	44d	1	0.89mi
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	45d	1	0.91mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.28mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	44d	1	1.28mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,775	$1.24	11d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 16788 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,934	$1.35	44d	1	1.34mi
16755 W Lake Houston Pkwy Unit 3148 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,743	$1.22	3d	1	1.34mi
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	25d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,995 Active 861 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,995 Active 860 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,995 Active 859 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,995 Active 858 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,995 Active 856 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,995 Active 855 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,995 Active 852 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,995 Active 851 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,995 Active 850 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,995 Active 847 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,995 Active 846 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,995 Active 845 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,995 Active 844 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,995 Active 843 DOM
15. 2024-03-31
    price $258,995 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

16. 2024-03-06
    price $256,995 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

17. 2024-03-01
    status Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

18. 2024-03-01
    price $253,995 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

19. 2023-12-01
    historical 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

20. 2023-11-08
    listed $263,995 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    * Stainless steel appliances with 2-yr. warranty * Upstairs laundry room * Upstairs primary suite * Spacious great room * Gas range * Smart thermostat * Kitchen breakfast bar * Loft * Extra storage space * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Swimming pool * Pavilion * Playground * Recreation center * Near top-rated schools * Near beautiful lakes

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,992
• − Property taxes: −$4,818
• − Insurance: −$1,606
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,316
• − Management: −$2,316
• − Depreciation: −$9,344
• Taxable loss: −$9,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs and maintenance. The highest-ROI updates that would raise its resale or rental value include painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls, updating the flooring, upgrading the kitchen appliances, adding smart home features, and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern style — A fresh flooring style can improve the overall look of the home and make it more appealing to a wider range of buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features such as smart lighting and security systems — Smart home features can enhance the home's functionality and appeal, making it more attractive to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements such as adding more plants and flowers — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more inviting to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding and repainting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring with a more modern style — A fresh flooring style can improve the overall look of the home and make it more appealing to a wider range of buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances to the latest models — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features such as smart lighting and security systems — Smart home features can enhance the home's functionality and appeal, making it more attractive to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements such as adding more plants and flowers — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can enhance the curb appeal and make the home more inviting to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-03-31 Price Changed $258,995 Zillow
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $256,995 Zillow
• 2024-03-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-03-01 Price Changed $253,995 Zillow
• 2023-12-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $263,995 Zillow