16711 Lake Cir · Grangerland, TX 77302

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 286 Days on market

Built 1993 0.63 ac lot $124/sqft · 21% above area Est $161k · 21% over ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

Key facts

• Vinyl flooring
• Fresh paint
• Large lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• PLENTIFUL CABINETS
• ABUNDANCE OF WORKING SPACE
• NICE SIZE CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $556 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 286 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 286 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.23%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,413
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 20.81%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $4,411
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $51,854
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $698/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $556

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,471

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.79mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 286 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 285 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 284 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 283 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 281 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 277 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 276 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 275 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $179,900 Active 272 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,900 Active 271 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,900 Active 270 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,900 Active 269 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,900 Active 268 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    status Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

15. 2026-04-09
    historical 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

16. 2026-03-30
    price $189,900 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

17. 2026-01-25
    status Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

18. 2026-01-25
    price $199,900 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

19. 2025-12-13
    historical 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

20. 2025-11-01
    price $209,900 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

21. 2025-10-22
    status Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

22. 2025-10-21
    status Pending 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

23. 2025-10-14
    historical 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

24. 2025-07-01
    listed $219,900 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Come see this wonderful doublewide in the heart of Allendale. This home sits on a large 1/2 acre unrestricted lot that is cleared and easy to maintain. This home has elegant vinyl flooring along with fresh paint and many other upgrades. All the living areas are spacious with plenty of ambient lighting. The kitchen has plentiful cabinets with an abundance of working space and storage. The primary room has a is spacious and features a nice size closet. The additional rooms are located on the other side of the house for privacy in this split floor plan. The backyard has ample space with the back portion fenced in for family pets or the kids to stay in. The area is unrestricted so you have a clean slate to work with. This is a booming area so jump on this chance while you can!!

25. 1994-08-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $698 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,871/yr (+$239/mo · 411.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$698
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,088
• − Management: −$2,088
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $3,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$878
• After-tax cash flow: $5,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-01 Listed $219,900 HARMLS
• 1994-08-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $698 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.