511 Hancock · Natchitoches, LA 71457

$144,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,422 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 1978 9,583 sqft lot $102/sqft · 20% below area Est $182k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home located in the Pecan Park neighborhood in East Natchitoches. Large, fenced-in backyard just minutes away from local amenities, schools, and parks. This home is not in a flood zone. Will come with a 1 year Guard Home Warranty with a favorable offer to the seller.

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Brick home
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• PECAN PARK NEIGHBORHOOD
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.6% in Natchitoches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#382 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, housing D+.
• Natchitoches Parish (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #41 of 98 in LA (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 95 units permitted in Natchitoches Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natchitoches County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.50%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,035
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -20.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Marion St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+10%)	2mo	$233,500	$150	69
312 Pearl St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-2%)	2mo	$190,000	$136	57
509 Watson Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,234 (-13%)	19mo	$185,000	$150	54
112 Hidden Oaks Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,283 (-10%)	4mo	$235	—	54
212 Paula Ln	0.53mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-12%)	1mo	$179,000	$143	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-15,988
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,370
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71457

• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,117/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,156

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $144,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $144,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $144,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $144,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $144,900 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $144,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $144,900 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $144,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $144,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $144,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    price $149,900 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home located in the Pecan Park neighborhood in East Natchitoches. Large, fenced-in backyard just minutes away from local amenities, schools, and parks. This home is not in a flood zone. Will come with a 1 year Guard Home Warranty with a favorable offer to the seller.

18. 2026-03-11
    price $149,900 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home located in the Pecan Park neighborhood in East Natchitoches. Large, fenced-in backyard just minutes away from local amenities, schools, and parks. This home is not in a flood zone. Will come with a 1 year Guard Home Warranty with a favorable offer to the seller.

19. 2026-02-16
    listed $159,900 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home located in the Pecan Park neighborhood in East Natchitoches. Large, fenced-in backyard just minutes away from local amenities, schools, and parks. This home is not in a flood zone. Will come with a 1 year Guard Home Warranty with a favorable offer to the seller.

20. 2026-02-13
    listed $159,900 Active 295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (295 chars)

    4 bedroom, 2 bathroom brick home located in the Pecan Park neighborhood in East Natchitoches. Large, fenced-in backyard just minutes away from local amenities, schools, and parks. This home is not in a flood zone. Will come with a 1 year Guard Home Warranty with a favorable offer to the seller.

21. 2025-11-29
    price $165,000
22. 2025-08-19
    price $149,999
23. 2025-07-08
    listed $160,000 Active
24. 2012-07-30
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2012-07-02
    listed $120,000
26. 2009-06-03
    soldstatus $122,500
27. 2009-01-29
    listed $127,900
28. 2006-11-27
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,117 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,117
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$1,012
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$243
• After-tax cash flow: $1,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natchitoches Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201140
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $30,204
• Composite: 26.36/100
• National rank: #7235
• State rank: #41 of 98 in LA

Livability — Natchitoches

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #23935

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety C- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Natchitoches, LA
• City population: 27,214
• Population (ZIP): 25,485

Population outlook (Natchitoches County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,130 people
• By 2030: 37,412 · -1.9%
• By 2040: 35,550 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 33,580 · -11.9%
• By 2075: 29,268 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 23,909 · -37.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 45% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natchitoches

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.4) · D 38.2% · R 60.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -7.3pp · 2024: -22.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.4 2020: R+14.9 2016: R+11.0 2012: R+6.6 2008: R+7.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.84%
• Current HPI: 103.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+30.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $149,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $159,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $165,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $149,999 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $160,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-07-30 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2012-07-02 Listed $120,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2009-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $122,500 Public Records
• 2009-01-29 Listed $127,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2006-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,117 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.