5837 Sunny Vale Cir · El Paso, TX 79924

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 868 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1983 5,869 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice home, freshly painted, corner lot, double car garage, lots of greenery, easy access to merchants. Kitchen and live-in room comfortable size. New carpet in master bedroom. Recently replaced the flooring throughout the home.

Key facts

• Lots of greenery
• Corner lot
• 5,869 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO MERCHANTS
• LOTS OF GREENERY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.14 acres (5,869 sq ft); Please do not allow cats inside the home; secure doors and turn off lights per directions
• Financial info: Tax year 2024
• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Utilities: Pool: none
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Construction: Composition roof; Construction materials: see remarks; Total building area 868
• Exterior features: See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas oven; Range hood
• Flooring: Tile; Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fans; Window AC units; Heating: see remarks
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Blinds

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $222 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Parkland El (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 510 students, 91% FRL); Parkland Pre-Engineering Middle (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 1,166 students, 83% FRL); Parkland H S (math 29% / reading 42%, grade F, #941 of 1,632 statewide, top 58%, 1,674 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 241 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $138k implies a 463% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,007 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.90%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,192
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $21,385
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79924

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 241
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $759/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5741 Arrowhead Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,175	$1.09	43d	1	0.21mi
5732 Arrowhead Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	1.0	957	$1,175	$1.23	43d	1	0.24mi
5944 Bridalveil Dr El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	912	$1,250	$1.37	23d	1	0.41mi
5947 Deer Ave El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	893	$1,250	$1.40	14d	1	0.45mi
10208 Niagara Falls Pl El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,250	$1.19	43d	1	0.50mi
10202 Niagara Falls Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	1.5	1077	$1,295	$1.20	43d	1	0.52mi
10626 McCombs St Unit 01 El Paso, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$1,100	$1.52	14d	1	0.68mi
5140 Tropicana Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,100	$1.10	11d	1	0.94mi
5140 Tropicana Ave El Paso, TX	3.0	1.0	998	$1,050	$1.05	3d	1	0.94mi
10708 Levelland Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	43d	1	0.98mi
10708 Levelland Pl El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	14d	1	0.98mi
10800 McCombs St El Paso, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1067	$1,970	$1.85	2d	12	1.01mi
10051 Railroad Dr Unit 202 El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	989	$975	$0.99	23d	1	1.20mi
10051 Railroad Dr Unit 704 El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	989	$975	$0.99	43d	1	1.20mi
10051 Railroad Dr Unit 704 El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	989	$975	$0.99	14d	1	1.20mi
10021 Railroad Dr #402 El Paso, TX	2.0	2.0	989	$1,100	$1.11	43d	1	1.23mi
10452 Persephone Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,250	$1.23	14d	1	1.24mi
6262 Woodrow Bean Transmountain Unit 2 El Paso, TX	2.0	2.5	1000	$1,345	$1.34	43d	1	1.26mi
4917 Royal Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1034	$1,425	$1.38	23d	1	1.36mi
10969 Duke Snider Cir El Paso, TX	3.0	2.0	1003	$1,385	$1.38	11d	1	1.38mi
10037 Oakwood Dr El Paso, TX	3.0	1.5	1039	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $138,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $138,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 227-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $759 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,525 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,767/yr (+$147/mo · 232.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,201
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$759
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $415
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$100
• After-tax cash flow: $2,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ysleta ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846680
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,826
• Composite: 25.65/100
• National rank: #7400
• State rank: #626 of 826 in TX

Livability — El Paso

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #23
• US rank: #1375

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Paso, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 630,223
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 60,364
• Household income: $56,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.5% rent · 61.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1903.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 35% White 16% Black 7% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 56% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -40.46%
• Current HPI: 265.8729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.50%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+463.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $138,000 GEPARMLS
• 2006-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-03-20 Listing Removed — GEPARMLS
• 2006-01-11 Listed $38,500 GEPARMLS
• 1997-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $24,500 Public Records
• 1992-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $759 · +20.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.