Norfolk Plan · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$429,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level.

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Second level landing
• Powder room

Tags

• GRAND ENTRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PENINSULA BAR
• COAT CLOSET
• POWDER ROOM
• SECOND LEVEL LANDING

🏗️ New construction. The $429,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $504,171.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $382k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $382k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.6% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Patronis Elementary School (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #345 of 2,144 statewide, top 17%, 648 students, 42% FRL); Surfside Middle School (math 58% / reading 59%, grade B, #148 of 571 statewide, top 26%, 843 students, 48% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1312 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,815/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 16% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $381,519 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.00%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $504,171
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -14.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3528 Cottage Cove Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,765 (-0%)	0mo	$410,000	$232	98
3600 Woods Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,765 (-0%)	3mo	$415,000	$235	96
3524 Cottage Cove Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,771 (0%)	6mo	$375,000	$212	94
3620 Woods Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,917 (+8%)	2mo	$550,000	$287	79
3508 Cottage Cove Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,846 (+4%)	15mo	$478,000	$259	78
3926 Bungalow Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,946 (+10%)	24mo	$625,000	$321	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-113,308
• Equity at exit: $75,174

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-143,989
• Equity at exit: $43,592

Cash invested: $141,168 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.0 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $459,900 ($242/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1312
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,644
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$630 /mo · $7,563/yr
• Insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,410

Max offer price $436,131

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-122	-5% $-296	+0% $-470	+5% $-644	+10% $-819
Rent	-10% $-772	-5% $-621	+0% $-470	+5% $-320	+10% $-169
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-342	base $-470	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-734

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $126,043
• Closing costs: $15,125
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	109d	1	0.57mi
4420 Delwood Ln Panama City, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1175	$1,800	$1.53	6d	1	1.09mi
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	116d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $429,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Norfolk)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,771

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Norfolk (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $429,900 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-09-24
   days on market $429,900 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $429,900 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $429,900 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $429,900 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $429,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $429,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $429,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $429,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $429,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $429,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $429,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $429,900 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $429,900 Active 22 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $429,900 Active 21 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $429,900 Active 20 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $429,900 Active 19 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $429,900 Active 18 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $429,900 Active 17 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $429,900 Active 16 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $429,900 Active 15 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $429,900 Active 14 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $429,900 Active 13 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $429,900 Active 12 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $429,900 Active 11 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $429,900 Active 10 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $429,900 Active 9 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $429,900 Active 8 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $429,900 Active 7 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $429,900 Active 6 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $429,900 Active 5 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $429,900 Active 4 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $429,900 Active 3 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $429,900 Active 2 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on marketlisting id $429,900 Active 1 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $429,900 Active 363 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $429,900 Active 362 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 361 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 358 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $429,900 Active 357 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $429,900 Active 356 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $429,900 Active 354 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $429,900 Active 352 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $429,900 Active 350 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $429,900 Active 349 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $429,900 Active 348 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,241
• − Property taxes: −$7,563
• − Insurance: −$2,521
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,663
• − Management: −$3,663
• − Depreciation: −$14,667
• Taxable loss: −$14,535
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,488
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,855–$26,565 screening

This Norfolk floor plan is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout with an open kitchen and two bathrooms. The home is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Patronis Elementary School A- FL #345/2,144 Nat'l #3,382/41,679 Middle Surfside Middle School B FL #148/571 Nat'l #2,008/14,009 High J.r. Arnold High School D FL #204/667 Nat'l #6,282/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 206,264 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $429,900

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Norfolk)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,771

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Norfolk (new construction plan)