Norfolk Plan · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$429,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,771 sqft · SingleFamily · 318 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Second level landing
• Powder room

Tags

• GRAND ENTRY
• OPEN KITCHEN
• PENINSULA BAR
• COAT CLOSET
• POWDER ROOM
• SECOND LEVEL LANDING

🏗️ New construction. The $429,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $529,256.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $430k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-644 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $378k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,815/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 318 days — a 12% lower offer ($378k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $378,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 318 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.21%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $529,256
• List price: $429,900
• Delta: -18.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3524 Cottage Cove Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,771 (0%)	3mo	$375,000	$212	97
3508 Cottage Cove Ln	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,846 (+4%)	12mo	$478,000	$259	80
3926 Bungalow Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,946 (+10%)	21mo	$625,000	$321	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-128,436
• Equity at exit: $78,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-171,407
• Equity at exit: $45,760

Cash invested: $148,192 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,815 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,775
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$662 /mo · $7,939/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $-644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,630

Max offer price $436,080

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-278	-5% $-461	+0% $-644	+5% $-827	+10% $-1,010
Rent	-10% $-945	-5% $-795	+0% $-644	+5% $-493	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-377	-0.5pp $-509	base $-644	+0.5pp $-781	+1.0pp $-921

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,314
• Closing costs: $15,878
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4050 Marriott Dr Unit 1510830P Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1506	$6,212	$4.12	14d	1	0.57mi
4805 Stellata Ln Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,250	$1.76	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $429,900 Active 318 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $429,900 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $429,900 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $429,900 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $429,900 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $429,900 Active 312 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $429,900 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $429,900 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $429,900 Active 307 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $429,900 Active 306 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $429,900 Active 305 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $429,900 Active 304 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $429,900 Active 301 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 300 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,900 Active 299 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 298 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 297 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $429,900 Active 296 DOM
19. 2026-03-17
    price $429,900 1306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1306 chars)

    Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

20. 2026-01-24
    price $439,900 1306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1306 chars)

    Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

21. 2025-11-20
    price $509,900 1306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1306 chars)

    Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

22. 2025-08-27
    price $542,900 1306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1306 chars)

    Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

23. 2025-08-07
    listed $534,900 Active 1306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1306 chars)

    Welcome to the Norfolk, a new home floor plan at Sanctuary Beach in Panama City Beach Florida. This home features a grand entry with stairs leading to the second level bedrooms and a hall leading to the spacious downstairs living area. The foyer offers a coat closet and garage access just off the entry and a powder room. As you enter the open living area you will find an open kitchen with peninsula bar and space for bar seating. The dining area is spacious and looks over to the living area. The main living area serves as the heart of the home, as all bedrooms are on the second level. The stairs located off the foyer lead to a second level landing and hall with all bedrooms and a laundry area. The primary bedroom is located just off the landing and overlooks the back of the home. This space is the perfect retreat and has a large closet and private ensuite bathroom with a large soak tub and separate shower as well as a dual sink vanity. Leaving the primary bedroom, you will find two additional bedrooms that feature a Jack and Jill bathroom with separate single sink vanities and a shower tub combination. The additional bedrooms are spacious and feature large closets for storage. For more information on the Norfolk floor plan in Sanctuary Beach, contact a D. R. Horton Sales Representative.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,647
• − Property taxes: −$7,939
• − Insurance: −$2,646
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,662
• − Management: −$3,662
• − Depreciation: −$15,397
• Taxable loss: −$17,176
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,122
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Norfolk floor plan is in good condition with a fresh exterior and interior. It offers a spacious layout with an open kitchen and two bathrooms. The home is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's appeal and value.
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Upgrading appliances can increase the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Modernizing bathrooms can improve functionality and attract more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and can reduce energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $429,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $439,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $509,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $542,900 Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Listed $534,900 Zillow