Foxmoor Plan · Nolensville, TN 37014

$863,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,247 sqft · SingleFamily · 769 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

None

Key facts

• Spacious interiors
• Tree-lined homesites
• Stocked fishing pond

Tags

• SPACIOUS INTERIORS
• MAIN LEVEL OWNER'S SUITES
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREAS
• TREE-LINED HOMESITES
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS
• STOCKED FISHING POND

🏗️ New construction. The $863,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $1,053,043.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $864k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $743k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $650k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $650k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 2.2% in Nolensville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#2 in TN, #2,317 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, cost of living F.
• Williamson County (rural): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #1 of 139 in TN (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,994 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (637 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $76k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (6.5% local appreciation)).
• Williamson County population projected at +59% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$122k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 769 days — a 12% lower offer ($760k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $650,000 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 769 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.72%
• DSCR: 0.61
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,053,043
• List price: $863,990
• Delta: -17.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3021 Lilybelle Ct	0.10mi	4/3.5	3,369 (+4%)	3mo	$1,073,500	$319	86
7020 Fiddlers Glen Dr	0.16mi	4/3.5	3,374 (+4%)	1mo	$1,075,000	$319	85
1004 Pine Creek Dr	0.00mi	4/3.5	3,369 (+4%)	14mo	$1,080,990	$321	82
3009 Lilybelle Ct	0.13mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,387 (+4%)	2mo	$950,000	$280	80
1278 Galloping Hill Way	0.38mi	4/3.5	3,289 (+1%)	7mo	$1,050,000	$319	74
1301 Galloping Hill Way	0.28mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,045 (-6%)	3mo	$880,000	$289	69
3038 Lilybelle Ct	0.04mi	4/4.5	3,716 (+14%)	2mo	$1,210,000	$326	68
1992 Ellsworth Ln	0.25mi	4/3.5	3,369 (+4%)	18mo	$989,990	$294	67
1297G Galloping Way	0.28mi	4/3.5	3,369 (+4%)	18mo	$1,120,502	$333	66
1061 Pine Creek Dr	0.30mi	4/3.5	3,045 (-6%)	18mo	$876,096	$288	61
7036 Fiddlers Glen Dr	0.23mi	4/4.0	3,608 (+11%)	14mo	$1,175,000	$326	56
1096 Pine Creek Dr	0.44mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,611 (+11%)	18mo	$1,079,990	$299	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $201,953
• Equity at exit: $698,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $693,143
• Equity at exit: $1,299,304

Cash invested: $294,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37014

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,522
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,316 /mo · $15,796/yr
• Insurance: −$439
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,365
• Net cashflow: $-2,142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,212

Max offer price $743,043

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $263,261
• Closing costs: $31,591
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1301 Ashby Valley Ln Arrington, TN	4.0	4.5	4282	$6,500	$1.52	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $863,990 Active 769 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $863,990 Active 768 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $863,990 Active 767 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $863,990 Active 766 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $863,990 Active 764 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $863,990 Active 763 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $863,990 Active 760 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $863,990 Active 759 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $863,990 Active 758 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $863,990 Active 753 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $863,990 Active 752 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $863,990 Active 751 DOM
13. 2024-10-16
    status Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

14. 2024-10-16
    historical 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

15. 2024-06-21
    price $863,990 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

16. 2024-06-01
    price $858,990 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

17. 2024-05-10
    listed $845,990 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    None

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $78,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,987
• − Property taxes: −$15,796
• − Insurance: −$5,265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$6,240
• − Management: −$6,240
• − Depreciation: −$30,634
• Taxable loss: −$45,162
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,839
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamson County
• NCES district ID: 4704530
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $103,392
• Composite: 54.94/100
• National rank: #1307
• State rank: #1 of 139 in TN

Livability — Nolensville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #2317

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,409
• Population (ZIP): 3,633

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 275,925 people
• By 2030: 308,630 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 374,403 · +35.7%
• By 2050: 438,644 · +59.0%
• By 2075: 592,763 · +114.8%
• By 2100: 691,828 · +150.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 12% Slovak 1% English 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 33.0% · R 65.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+26.1 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+46.8 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.54%
• Current HPI: 498.4505
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+2.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2024-10-16 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-16 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $863,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-01 Price Changed $858,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Listed $845,990 Zillow