1515 S Hunter St · Stockton, CA 95206

$190,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 885 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 7,000 sqft lot Est $295k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come grab this investors dream of a fixer upper today! This two bedroom house is ready for new interior finishings, and the property boasts a large backyard with possible ADU potential.

Key facts

• Adu potential
• Large backyard
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• ADU POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, Single Family Residence; Address: 1515 S Hunter St, Stockton, CA 95206
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electric: other; Public sewer (sewer in street); Public water with meter on site; Irrigation source: other
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Built in 1920; Single-story (1 story)
• Construction: Composition roof; Detached construction
• Exterior features: Curb(s)/gutter(s); Regular-shaped lot; No private pool or spa

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over and bidet
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fans for cooling
• Interior features: Partial basement; Pantry cabinet and laminate countertop in kitchen; Living room with additional unspecified features; Dining room with additional unspecified features
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $347 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (0.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (0.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $190k implies a 443% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,247 (0.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.82%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $294,705
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 S Hunter St	0.00mi	2/1.0	885 (0%)	0mo	$218,000	$246	100
1913 S California St	0.41mi	2/1.0	862 (-3%)	1mo	$400,000	$464	75
314 Kolher St	0.52mi	2/1.0	860 (-3%)	6mo	$267,000	$310	66
123 W Clay St	0.30mi	3/1.5 (+1)	967 (+9%)	2mo	$290,000	$300	62
332 Kolher St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	900 (+2%)	7mo	$285,000	$317	61
2020 S American St	0.55mi	2/1.0	962 (+9%)	2mo	$320,000	$333	58
711 Oso St	0.40mi	2/2.0	814 (-8%)	8mo	$299,000	$367	58
143 W Jefferson St	0.41mi	3/1.5 (+1)	981 (+11%)	1mo	$310,000	$316	55
426 Howard St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	900 (+2%)	5mo	$350,000	$389	54
2332 S Madison St	0.74mi	2/1.0	962 (+9%)	0mo	$330,000	$343	51
1926 S San Joaquin St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,011 (+14%)	6mo	$448,000	$443	44
719 Hyde Ct	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+13%)	4mo	$329,900	$330	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-14,291
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,633
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95206

• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $777/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $347

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $401	+0% $347	+5% $293	+10% $239
Rent	-10% $198	-5% $273	+0% $347	+5% $421	+10% $496
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $395	base $347	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
114 E 4th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,750	$1.84	24d	1	0.29mi
137 W 3rd St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	833	$1,795	$2.15	24d	1	0.29mi
17 W Anderson St Stockton, CA	1.0	1.0	540	$1,195	$2.21	45d	1	0.39mi
17 W 6th St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,850	$2.57	4d	1	0.46mi
1446 S Aurora St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	827	$1,900	$2.30	4d	1	0.55mi
521 S Sutter St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	810	$1,195	$1.48	45d	1	0.69mi
802 W Weber Ave Unit 133 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,545	$1.58	15d	2	1.29mi
520 N Monroe St Unit 520 Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,025	$1.14	45d	1	1.47mi
610 E Oak St Stockton, CA	2.0	1.0	930	$1,550	$1.67	24d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 1995-09-26
   soldstatus $35,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $777 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,444 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$667/yr (+$56/mo · 85.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 26 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$777
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $1,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$259
• After-tax cash flow: $3,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 68,558
• Household income: $83,432
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1459.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Two or more races 20% Asian 18% Black 11% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 35% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 46% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.27%
• Current HPI: 357.6069
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 1995-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $777 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.