14694 State Route 821 Unit 10D-2 · Kittitas, WA 98926

$39,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 855 sqft · Timeshare · 276 Days on market

Built 2008 $47/sqft · 61% below area $127/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This fractional 1/24th interest in a lower level unit offers owners 14 nights of overnight use in a richly appointed condo each year. The lodge at Canyon River Ranch is located along the banks of the Yakima River, 13 miles South of Ellensburg in the center of the famous Yakima River Canyon. Each of the 10 condos offer 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, full kitchen, gas fireplace and private balcony with amazing views of the Yakima River & Basalt cliffs beyond. This is the premier resort destination in Central Washington. * * * * One year of HOA dues credit being offered as end of year incentive!

Key facts

• Canyon river ranch
• Amazing views
• Private balcony

Tags

• CANYON RIVER RANCH
• YAKIMA RIVER
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• AMAZING VIEWS
• BASALT CLIFFS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath timeshare listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $648 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.5% vs local median 2.1% in Kittitas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#321 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A-; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Ellensburg School District (town): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #148 of 291 in WA (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 302 active listings in the ZIP; 433 units permitted in Kittitas County in 2024 (23 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kittitas County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $40k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 83.01%
• DSCR: 4.69
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $102,099
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -60.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14694 State Route 821 Unit 10D-4	0.10mi	3/1.5 (+1)	855 (0%)	11mo	$120,000	$140	81
14694 State Route 821 Unit 10-F3	0.25mi	2/1.5	848 (-1%)	11mo	$115,000	$136	78
14694 State Route 821 Unit 10I-5	0.33mi	2/1.5	821 (-4%)	19mo	$119,900	$146	62
14694 State Route 821 Unit 10B1	0.33mi	2/1.5	821 (-4%)	22mo	$119,900	$146	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $31,405
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.02×
• Total profit: $67,294
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98926

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$127
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $127 · $1,524/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $39,900 Active 276 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 275 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 274 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 273 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $39,900 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,900 Active 269 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $39,900 Active 267 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,900 Active 266 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,900 Active 265 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,900 Active 264 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,900 Active 261 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $39,900 Active 260 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,900 Active 259 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,900 Active 258 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,900 Active 257 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $39,900 Active 256 DOM
18. 2025-09-16
    listed $39,900 Active
19. 2023-12-01
    soldstatus $22,500 Closed
20. 2023-11-22
    status Pending
21. 2023-09-29
    price $25,000
22. 2023-08-14
    status Active
23. 2023-08-12
    historical
24. 2023-02-13
    listed $32,500 Active
25. 2011-12-29
    soldstatus $29,950 Sold
26. 2011-09-22
    listed $29,950
27. 2011-09-22
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,856
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$1,702
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,428
• − Management: −$1,428
• − HOA: −$1,524
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $7,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,867
• After-tax cash flow: $5,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellensburg School District
• NCES district ID: 5302460
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,944
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #6026
• State rank: #148 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kittitas

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #11813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kittitas County · 34,353 people
• City population: 803
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• Population (ZIP): 34,353
• Household income: $71,137
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2076.0

Population outlook (Kittitas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,605 people
• By 2030: 51,628 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 57,361 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 63,241 · +30.1%
• By 2075: 79,310 · +63.2%
• By 2100: 94,769 · +95.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 9% Portuguese 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kittitas

• 2024 margin: R (+14.6) · D 41.1% · R 55.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.1pp · 2024: -14.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.6 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+14.5 2012: R+12.6 2008: R+8.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -193.62%
• Current HPI: 211.3198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Ellensburg, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+33.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-16 Listed $39,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-01 Sold (MLS) $22,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-22 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-29 Price Changed $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-14 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-12 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-13 Listed $32,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-12-29 Sold (MLS) $29,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-22 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-22 Listed $29,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid