56 Bellflower Ct · Toms River, NJ 08755

$283,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1969 8,276 sqft lot $316/sqft · 12% above area Est $252k · 12% over $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gardens of Pleasant Plains, Wren Model. Priced to sell. Two bedroom, one bath, with enclosed front and rear porch. Heating System is 2 years old. Hot water heater is 1 year old. Home has updated Anderson windows. Also has central air and is handicapped accessible. One time $500 Homeowners Association Fee Must Be Paid by Buyer at Closing.

Key facts

• One car garage
• Eat in kitchen
• Newer windows

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEWER FLOORS
• NEWER WINDOWS
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• SCREENED IN BACK PORCH
• ONE CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $195 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $283k implies a 157% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,919 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,000
• List price: $283,000
• Delta: 9.04%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28 Bellflower Ct	0.07mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	6mo	$251,000	$280	92
95 Larkspur Ct	0.10mi	2/1.0	916 (+2%)	3mo	$193,500	$211	89
61 Golden Glow Circus	0.26mi	2/1.0	896 (0%)	7mo	$300,000	$335	82
74 Fox Glove	0.29mi	2/1.0	916 (+2%)	2mo	$295,000	$322	82
33 Gardenia Way	0.09mi	2/1.0	960 (+7%)	4mo	$253,000	$264	80
44 Gardenia Way	0.10mi	2/1.0	966 (+8%)	3mo	$270,000	$280	80
33 Sunflower Ln	0.16mi	2/1.0	966 (+8%)	7mo	$240,000	$248	74
16 Hare Bell Holw	0.44mi	2/1.0	916 (+2%)	3mo	$260,000	$284	73
23 Wall Cress Ct	0.20mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+14%)	1mo	$279,000	$272	66
28 Cheddar Pink Cv	0.31mi	2/1.5	966 (+8%)	8mo	$259,999	$269	64
49 Green Dr	0.21mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+14%)	6mo	$180,000	$176	61
30 Swain Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0	821 (-8%)	7mo	$401,000	$488	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-33,437
• Equity at exit: $42,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-13,180
• Equity at exit: $24,469

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,772/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,352

Max offer price $283,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $356	-5% $275	+0% $195	+5% $115	+10% $35
Rent	-10% $-10	-5% $93	+0% $195	+5% $298	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $338	-0.5pp $267	base $195	+0.5pp $122	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$1,994	$2.12	44d	1	0.72mi
1255 NJ-166 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	25d	1	0.72mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit D9 Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	940	$2,199	$2.34	44d	1	0.75mi
1255 New Jersey 166 Unit A4 Toms River, NJ	1.0	2.0	990	$2,045	$2.07	44d	1	0.75mi
3600 Cypress Point Dr Toms River, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1170	$2,964	$2.53	2d	18	0.90mi
30 Green View Way Toms River, NJ	1.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1450	$2,682	$1.85	1d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $283,000 Active 1 DOM
8. 2026-03-15
   listed $274,777 Active
9. 2017-08-14
   soldstatus $110,000
10. 2017-08-04
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Gardens of Pleasant Plains, Wren Model. Priced to sell. Two bedroom, one bath, with enclosed front and rear porch. Heating System is 2 years old. Hot water heater is 1 year old. Home has updated Anderson windows. Also has central air and is handicapped accessible. One time $500 Homeowners Association Fee Must Be Paid by Buyer at Closing.

11. 2017-06-15
    status Pending 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Gardens of Pleasant Plains, Wren Model. Priced to sell. Two bedroom, one bath, with enclosed front and rear porch. Heating System is 2 years old. Hot water heater is 1 year old. Home has updated Anderson windows. Also has central air and is handicapped accessible. One time $500 Homeowners Association Fee Must Be Paid by Buyer at Closing.

12. 2017-06-05
    listed $110,000 Active 342-char remark

    Show marketing remark (342 chars)

    Gardens of Pleasant Plains, Wren Model. Priced to sell. Two bedroom, one bath, with enclosed front and rear porch. Heating System is 2 years old. Hot water heater is 1 year old. Home has updated Anderson windows. Also has central air and is handicapped accessible. One time $500 Homeowners Association Fee Must Be Paid by Buyer at Closing.

13. 2001-03-12
    soldstatus $67,000
14. 2001-01-02
    historical
15. 2000-09-26
    listed $69,900
16. 1991-04-30
    soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,772 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,909 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,137/yr (+$178/mo · 77.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,190
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$2,772
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$2,372
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$569
• After-tax cash flow: $2,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+373.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-15 Listed $274,777 MOMLS
• 2017-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-04 Sold (MLS) $110,000 MOMLS
• 2017-06-15 Pending — MOMLS
• 2017-06-05 Listed $110,000 MOMLS
• 2001-03-12 Sold (MLS) $67,000 MOMLS
• 2001-01-02 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2000-09-26 Listed $69,900 MOMLS
• 1991-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,772 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.